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Fakahinohino Sitepu: Ko e Mafola Bond

$140 ki he māʻolunga, $50 ki he peti fika ʻe ono 13–18, $10 ki he noa: $200 ki he vilo, fika ʻe 25 ʻoku kapui. Ko e mafola James Bond ʻi ha vilo ʻe uofulu.

Tali nounou

Ko ha taimi vaʻinga faʻifaʻitaki ʻo e vilo ʻe 20 ʻo e mafola ʻoku fakatau ko e founga James Bond. Ikuna ʻe hongofulu-mā-ua ʻo e $80, hū ʻe tolu ʻo e peti fika ʻe ono ʻo e $100, noa ʻe taha ʻo e $160, mo e mole ʻe fā ʻo e $200 ʻi he 1–12. Ola kakato +$620, ʻikai ʻaupito mole lahi ange ʻi he $40. ʻOku kapui ʻe he mafola ʻa e vahe tolu ʻe ua nai ʻo e veʻeteka. ʻI he taimi ʻoku tō ai ha taha ʻo e ngaahi fika ʻoku ʻikai kapui, ʻoku mole ʻa e peti kotoa ʻo e $200.

ki he vilo
$200
kapui
25 ʻi he 37
p(ikuna)
67.6%
ʻamanekina ki he vilo
−$5.41

Ko e palani

ʻI ha tēpile ʻIulope: $140 ki he 19–36, $50 ki he peti fika ʻe onopetiPeti fika ʻe onoFika ʻe ono ʻi ha laine fakafaʻalalo ʻe ua ʻoku fehokotaki, totongi ʻo e 5:1. Faka-Falanisē: sixain.Lau kotoa → 13–18, $10 ki he noaveʻetekaNoaKo e luo lanu mata pē ʻe taha ʻoku ʻikai kāpui ʻe ha peti totongi tatau, peti tasini pe peti kōlomu; ko e tupuʻanga ia ʻo e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino. ʻOku toe ui: noa ʻe taha, 0.Lau kotoa →. Fika ʻe uofulu-mā-nima ʻoku kapui. ʻOku totongi ʻe ha fika māʻolunga ʻa e $140 pea mole ʻa e $60: +$80. ʻOku totongi ʻe ha fika ʻo e peti fika ʻe ono ʻa e $250 pea mole ʻa e $150: +$100. ʻOku totongi ʻe he noa ʻa e $350 pea mole ʻa e $190: +$160. Ko ha fika pē ʻo e 1–12 ʻoku mole ai ʻa e kotoa: −$200. Ko e mahuʻinga ʻamanekinamatematikaMahuʻinga ʻamanekinaKo e ola ʻavalisi ʻi he peti takitaha ʻi he taimi lōloa. −1/37 ʻo e peti ki he peti ʻIulope angamaheni kotoa pē.Lau kotoa → ki he vilo ko e (18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5.41, ʻa ia ko e 2.70% ʻo e $200. Ko e mafola ko ha peti tatau ʻoku tui vala fakaʻofoʻofa.

Founga Lulēti Peti Tatau

Vilo 1–10

19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29. Māʻolunga ʻe ono, peti fika ʻe ono ʻe taha, noa ʻe taha, mole ʻe ua: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340. Toenga +$340 hili ʻa e vilo ʻe hongofulu, mo e vilo mole ʻe ua naʻe toʻo ʻe he taha kotoa ʻa e $200. Naʻe totongi ʻe he noa ʻi he vilo 6 ʻa e $160, ʻa ia ko e taimi pē ia ʻe taha naʻe ongoʻi ai ʻa e noa hangē ha kaungāmeʻa.

vilofikaolaola kakatotoenga
119māʻolunga+$80+$80
227māʻolunga+$80+$160
371–12−$200−$40
433māʻolunga+$80+$40
515peti fika ʻe ono+$100+$140
60noa+$160+$300
723māʻolunga+$80+$380
831māʻolunga+$80+$460
9111–12−$200+$260
1029māʻolunga+$80+$340
Vilo hono ono: ʻoku tō ʻa e pulu ki he noa, pea ʻoku ʻai ʻe he sipi $10 ʻi ai ʻa e vilo ke tupu ʻaki ʻa e $160.

Vilo 11–20

5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25. Ko e mole ʻe ua ʻi he ʻuluaki vilo ʻe ono naʻa na toho ki mui ʻa e toenga ki he +$280; pea ko e māʻolunga ʻe tolu mo ha peti fika ʻe ono naʻa nau tāpuni ʻa e taimi vaʻinga ʻi he +$620. Vilo ʻe uofulu: māʻolunga ʻe 12, hū ʻe 3 ʻo e peti fika ʻe ono, noa ʻe 1, mole ʻe 4. Ko e ola kakato ʻamanekina ko e −$108; ola moʻoni +$620, ʻoku meimei mavahe fakasitanatematematikaMavahe fakasitanateAka ua ʻo e vēliani; ko e mamaʻo angamaheni ʻo ha ola mei he mahuʻinga ʻamanekina.Lau kotoa → ʻe 1.2 ʻi ʻolunga ʻi he ʻamanekina, ko ha poʻuli lelei.

Ko e taimi vaʻinga ko ʻeni mo e hiva ʻoku tatau mo iaola ʻo fakahoa ki he kamataʻanga
+$5,500$0−$2,000+$1,640−$1,0000125250375500ngaahi viloola
taimi vaʻinga ʻe 1,000 × vilo ʻe 500 · vaioleti p10/p25/p75/p90, pulū maama fika lotoloto (median), sīpinga vaivai ʻe 82 · ʻave ki he kalafi ke sio ki he ngaahi kuanitaila ʻi ha vilo
  • p10 −$2,000
  • p25 −$2,000
  • fika lotoloto (median) −$2,000
  • p75 −$2,000
  • p90 +$780
taimi vaʻinga ʻe 1,000 × vilo ʻe 500 · kuo kosi ʻa e ʻakisi-y ki he pēsenitaila 1–99 (ngaahi ngataʻanga −$2,000 ki he +$8,860) · vilo ʻe 500 · tefito $200 · Mafola Bond
Ko ha peti tatau ʻo e $200 ki he fika ʻe 25: ikuna ʻo e $80–$160 ʻi he vilo ʻe ua nai ʻi he tolu, mole ʻo e $200 ʻi he vilo ʻe taha ʻi he tolu. ʻOku hifo ʻa e laine ʻo e ʻavalisi ʻi he −$5.41 ki he vilo.

Ko e ngaahi fakamatala paʻanga

Fakakātoa ʻo e peti $4,000 ʻi he vilo ʻe uofulu. Mole ʻamanekinamatematikaMole ʻamanekinaKo e mahuʻinga ʻamanekina liunga ʻaki ʻa e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga naʻe peti ʻaki; ko e ʻavalisi ʻo e paʻanga ʻoku mole ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga pe ha vahaʻa taimi.Lau kotoa → $108. Ko e mavahe fakasitanate ʻo ha vilo ʻe taha ko e $135 nai, ko ia ko e vilo ʻe uofulu ʻoku ʻi ai ha mavahe fakasitanate ʻo e $605 nai; ko e +$620 pe lelei ange ko ha poʻuli ʻe taha ia ʻi he hiva. Ko e vilo tatau ʻe uofulu ʻi he $200 peti tatau ki he kulokulapetiKulokulaPeti totongi tatau ki he fika kulokula ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: rouge.Lau kotoa → naʻe mei tatau hono ʻamanekina mo ha tufaki fālahi ange (σ ≈ $200 ki he vilo): ʻoku siʻi ange ʻa e vēlianimatematikaVēlianiKo ha fua ʻo hono mafola ʻo e ngaahi ola takatakai ʻi he mahuʻinga ʻamanekina. Māʻolunga ki he peti fika ʻe taha, māʻulalo ki he ngaahi peti totongi tatau.Lau kotoa → ʻo e mafola ʻi ha peti totongi tataupetiPeti totongi tatauKulokula/ʻuliʻuli, taʻehoa/hoa, māʻolunga/māʻulalo. Fika ʻe 18, totongi ʻo e 1:1.Lau kotoa → koeʻuhi ʻoku faʻa ikuna lahi ange ia pea siʻi ange.

Ko e meʻa ʻoku fakahā ʻe he taimi vaʻinga

Ko e mafola Bond ko ha peti ʻe tolu ʻoku tānaki honau ʻamanekina ki he −1/37 ʻo e fakakātoa, ʻo hangē ko e fakatahaʻi kotoa pē ʻo e ngaahi peti angamaheni. Ko hono ʻulungaanga moʻoni ko e kapui: ko ha tuʻunga ikuna ʻo e 67.6% ʻoku ne ʻai ha efiafi ke ongoʻi hangē ha sisitemi. Ko e 32.4% ʻo e ngaahi vilo ʻoku mole ʻoku toʻo ʻa e $200 taki taha, pea ʻi he taimi lōloa ʻoku nau toʻo tofu pē ʻa e meʻa ʻoku pehē ʻe he matematika. Neongo hono hingoa, ʻoku ʻikai ʻi he ngaahi tohi talanoa ʻa Fleming: ʻoku peti ʻa hono Bond ki ha tasinipetiTasini1–12, 13–24 pe 25–36, totongi ʻo e 2:1.Lau kotoa → ʻe ua. Naʻe fai ʻe he ngaahi kiʻi tohi founga ʻa e toenga.

Lulēti ʻi he Ngaahi TohiFounga Lulēti ki he Ngaahi Tasini mo e Ngaahi Kōlomu

Ngaahi fehuʻi

ʻOku ngāue lelei ange ʻa e mafola mo e La Partage?

Ko e peti māʻolunga ko ha peti totongi tatau, ko ia ʻi ha tēpile Falanisē ʻoku mole pē ai ʻa e $70 ʻi he noa kae ʻikai ko e $140, pea ʻoku maʻu ʻe ha noa ʻa e +$230 kae ʻikai ko e +$160. Ko e tuʻunga lelei fakatahaʻi ko e 1.8% nai. Lelei ange, pea ʻoku kei ʻi lalo ʻi he noa.

Ko e hā ʻa e $140, $50, $10?

ʻOku meimei fakatatau ʻe he ngaahi vahevahe ʻa e ngaahi ikuna: $80, $100, $160. ʻOku ʻomai ʻe ha vahevahe pē ʻa e tuʻunga lelei tatau.

Ko ha peti tatau ia?

ʻIo. ʻOku ke peti ʻaki ʻa e $200 ki he fika tatau ʻe 25 ʻi he vilo kotoa pē. ʻOku ʻikai liliu ʻa e lahi pe ko e fili hili ha ikuna pe ha mole.

Meʻa fakaoli

Vahe tolu ʻe ua ʻo e veʻeteka. ʻI he vahe tolu ʻe taha ʻo e taimi, ʻoku mole kotoa.

Vahe tolu ʻe ua ʻo e veʻeteka. ʻI he vahe tolu ʻe taha ʻo e taimi, ʻoku mole kotoa.

Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga

  1. Fleming, I. Casino Royale. Jonathan Cape, 1953. Vahe 7: ʻoku peti ʻa Bond ki ha tasini ʻe ua, ʻikai ki he mafola ko ʻeni.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Vahe 13, lulēti.
naʻe vakaiʻi 2026-09-28mōtolo: ʻIulope, noa ʻe tahafounga ngāue ↗ngaahi maʻuʻanga ↗