Founga Lulēti Paroli (Martingale Fakafoki)

ʻOku ngāue fēfē ʻa e sisitemi lulēti Paroli?

Peti ha iunitipaʻangaIunitiKo e peti tefito ʻoku ngāueʻaki ʻe ha sisitemi pe ha tokotaha vaʻinga. ʻOku fakamatalaʻi ʻa e ngaahi fakalakalaka peti ʻaki ʻa e iuniti koeʻuhi ke ngāue ʻi ha tēpile pē.Lau kotoa → ʻe taha. Kapau te ke ikuna, tuku kotoa ia ʻi he tēpile: ko e peti hoko ko e ua. Ikuna ʻo toe, pea ko e fā ia. Ikuna ʻi hono tuʻo tolu, tānaki ʻa e iuniti ʻe fitu ʻo e tupu pea foki ki he taha. Kapau te ke mole ʻi ha taimi pē, ʻoku ke foki foki ki he taha. Ko e sisitemi kakato ia. Hili ʻa e ʻuluaki ikuna ʻoku ke peti ʻaki ʻa e paʻanga naʻe ikunaʻi, ko ia ko e lahi taha ʻe mole mei hoʻo paʻanga vaʻingapaʻangaPaʻanga vaʻingaKo e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga kuo vahe ke vaʻinga ʻaki. Ko e puleʻi ʻo e paʻanga vaʻinga ko e fili pe ko e hā hono lahi ʻoku tuku ki he fakatuʻutāmaki ʻi he peti takitaha mo e taimi vaʻinga takitaha.Lau kotoa → ʻaʻau ʻi ha takai pē ko e iuniti ʻe taha. ʻOku hoko ʻa e ikuna totongi tatau ʻe tolu ʻo hoko taha ʻaki ʻa e ngalingalimatematikaNgalingaliKo e faingamālie ʻo ha ola, mei he 0 ki he 1 pe 0% ki he 100%. Fika ʻe taha: 1/37 = 2.70%.Lau kotoa → ko e (18/37)³ = 11.5%, meimei takai ʻe taha ʻi he hiva.

ʻOku hangē ko e hā ha taimi vaʻinga?

Ko ha mahuhu māmālie mo ha puna ʻi he taimi ʻe niʻihi. Fakakaukau ki hono fakatau ʻa e tīkete siʻi tatau ʻo toutou fai: ʻoku iuniti ʻe taha ʻa e tīkete takitaha, ko e lahi taha ʻoku ʻikai ha meʻa ai, pea meimei taha ʻi he hiva ʻoku totongi ʻe fitu. ʻOku māʻulalo ʻa e ngalingali ke ʻosi ha taimi vaʻinga ʻo e vilo ʻe 100 mo ha tupu (meimei 30%) koeʻuhī ko e lahi taha ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga ʻoku ʻikai ha takai kakato feʻunga ke totongi ʻaki ʻa e ngaahi mole iuniti ʻe taha ʻoku hoko maʻu pē; ʻo ka ʻosi ha taimi vaʻinga mo e tupu, ʻoku faʻa ʻosi ia mo ha tupu lahi.

ʻOku ngāue koā ʻa e sisitemi Paroli?

ʻIkai. ʻOku ne liliu ʻa e fōtunga ʻo e ngaahi mole, ka ʻikai ko honau lahi. Tuku ke p = 18/37. Ikuna ʻe 7 ʻaki ʻa e ngalingali p³ = 0.115; mole ʻe 1 ʻaki ʻa e ngalingali 1 − p³ = 0.885. Ola ʻamanekina ʻi he takai: 7(0.115) − 1(0.885) = 0.805 − 0.885 = −0.08 iuniti. Iuniti ʻamanekina ʻoku peti ʻi he takai: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0.973 + 0.947 = 2.92. Vahevahe: −0.08 / 2.92 = −2.7%. ʻOku ʻomi ʻe he sisitemi kotoa pē ʻa e fika ni ʻo ka ke ka fai ʻa e vahevahe.

Ko e fakakaukau fakaʻāhiʻahi ko e ngaahi sipipaʻangaSipiKo ha fakaʻilonga ʻoku fakafofongaʻi ha paʻanga paʻu, ʻoku tuku ki he palani ʻo e tēpile ke fai ʻaki ha peti. ʻOku toe ui: check.Lau kotoa → ʻoku toe peti ko e paʻanga ia ʻa e kasino, ko ia ʻoku ʻikai ha totongi ʻi hono peti ʻaki. Ko hoʻo meʻa ia mei he momeniti ʻoku totongi ai, pea ko e sipi takitaha ʻoku toe tuku ki he tēpile ʻoku ʻi ai pē ʻa e 2.70% tatau.

Fēfē kapau te ke tatali ki ha ikuna ʻe fā ʻo hoko taha?

Ko ha ParolifoungaParoliFakalakalaka fakapapau: fakaua hili ha ikuna, kamata foʻou hili ha mole pe hili ha ikuna ʻe tolu hokohoko. ʻOku toe ui: Martingale fakafoki.Lau kotoa → ki he ikuna ʻe fā ʻoku ne liliu ʻa e iuniti ʻe taha ki he 16, ko ha tupu ʻe 15, ʻaki ʻa e ngalingali (18/37)⁴ = 5.6%. ʻOku ʻeke ʻe Taylor (2021) ha fehuʻi māsila ange: ʻi ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻo ha iuniti siʻi pē, ko e hā ʻa e faingamālie ke maʻu ha hokohoko pehē ʻe taha ki muʻa pea ʻosi ʻa e paʻanga vaʻinga? ʻOku totongi tonu ʻe he takai taʻelavameʻa takitaha ʻa e iuniti ʻe taha, ko ia ʻi he iuniti ʻe 15 ko e tali ko e 1 − (1 − 0.056)¹⁵ = 58%, ʻoku lelei ange ia ʻi he 48.6% ʻo hono tuku kotoa ʻa e 15 ki he kulokulapetiKulokulaPeti totongi tatau ki he fika kulokula ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: rouge.Lau kotoa → ʻi he taimi pē taha. ʻOku hā ʻa e palopalema ʻi he ngaahi fika kehe. ʻOku faʻa hoko mai ʻa e hokohoko ʻi he hili ha ngaahi takai taʻelavameʻa ʻe niʻihi, ko ia ko e tupu ʻo ka hoko mai ko hono ʻavalisi ko e iuniti ʻe 9, ʻo ʻikai ko e 15, pea koeʻuhī ʻoku peti lahi ange ʻa e fakalakalaka petifoungaFakalakalaka petiKo ha lao pē ʻoku ne liliu ʻa e lahi ʻo e peti ʻo fakatatau ki he ngaahi ola kimuʻa. Ko e ngaahi fakalakalaka fakafepaki ʻoku nau hiki hake ia hili ha mole, ko e ngaahi fakalakalaka fakapapau hili ha ikuna.Lau kotoa → ʻi he fakakātoa, ʻoku kovi ange hono ola ʻavalisi ʻi he ola ʻo e peti ʻe taha.

ʻOku mahuʻinga koā pe ʻoku ke taʻofi ʻi fē?

Ki he fōtunga pē. Ko e Paroli ki he ikuna ʻe ua (tānaki ʻa e 3) pe ikuna ʻe fā (tānaki ʻa e 15) ʻoku ne liliu ʻa e tuʻo lahi ʻo e lavameʻa mo e paʻanga ʻoku maʻu, ka ʻikai ko e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino. Ko e “parlay” ʻi ha peti fika ʻe taha (tuku ke toe peti ʻa e ikuna ʻo e 35 ki he 1) ko e fakakaukau tatau pē ia mo e p = 1/37 mo ha totongipaʻangaTotongiKo e meʻa ʻoku fakafoki ʻe ha peti ikuna, ʻoku fakahā ko e “X ki he 1” ʻi ʻolunga ʻi he peti ʻoku fakafoki.Lau kotoa → ʻo e 1,295 ki he 1 ʻi ha lavameʻa ʻe ua ʻo hoko taha, ko ia ai ko ha talanoa pē ia ʻi he lahi taha ʻo e taimi, ka ʻoku ʻikai ko ha meʻa ʻoku fai.

Ko hai ʻoku fili ia, pea ko e hā hono ʻuhinga?

Ko e kau vaʻinga ʻoku nau fiemaʻu ha mole lahi taha ʻoku siʻi mo mahino ʻi he takai kotoa, pea ʻoku nau fiefia ke mole māmālie koeʻuhī ko e faingamālie ʻo ha ikuna lahi. Ko e fakatātā fakafoki ia ʻi he ʻatamai ʻo e MartingalefoungaMartingaleFakalakalaka peti ʻoku ne fakaua ʻa e peti hili ʻa e mole takitaha. Vakai ki he konga Ngaahi Founga ki he meʻa ʻoku ne fai mo e meʻa ʻoku ʻikai te ne fai.Lau kotoa →: ʻoku ngaohi koe ʻe he Martingale ke ke ongoʻi ko ha tokotaha ikuna kae ʻoua kuo aʻu ki he pō ʻoku ʻikai ai; ʻoku ngaohi koe ʻe he Paroli ke ke ongoʻi ko ha tokotaha mole kae ʻoua kuo aʻu ki he pō ʻoku ʻikai ai. ʻOku toʻo ʻe he kasino ʻa e 2.70% ʻo e fakakātoa ʻo e petipaʻangaFakakātoa ʻo e petiKo e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga naʻe peti ʻaki ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga pe vahaʻa taimi, kau ai ʻa e paʻanga naʻe ikunaʻi kuo toe peti ʻaki. ʻOku toe ui: handle, action.Lau kotoa → ʻi he founga fēfē pē.

Meʻa faʻifaʻitaki · Paroli

Taimi vaʻinga ʻe 2,000 ʻo e ngaahi peti totongi tatau mei ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻo e $1,000.

Peti tefito $10 · fakangatangata ʻo e tēpile $500 · vilo ʻe 100 ʻi he taimi vaʻinga takitaha

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