Ngalingali ʻi he Lulēti
Ko e ngalingali kotoa pē ʻi he lulēti ko e lau ʻo e ngaahi luo kuo vahe ʻaki ʻa e 37.
p = ngaahi fika kuo kāpui / 37. Fika ʻe taha: 2.70%. Hongofulu mā valu: 48.65%. Ko e ngalingali ʻo ha hokohoko pau ʻoku fakaliunga ai ʻa e ngaahi ngalingali ʻo e vilo takitaha.
Vilo ʻe taha
ʻOku tatau pē ʻa e ngalingali ʻo e luomeʻangāueLuoKo e taha ʻo e ngaahi luo ʻe 37 ʻoku fakafika ʻi he konga vilo. ʻOku toe ui: slot, cup.Lau kotoa → takitaha ʻe 37, ko ia ko e faingamālie ke ikuna ʻi he lulēti ʻi ha vilo ʻe taha ko ha meʻa pē ʻo e lau. Ko ha peti ki ha fika ʻe fā ʻoku ikuna ʻi he 4/37 ʻo e taimi, ʻo meimei 10.8%. ʻOku ʻikai ha meʻa kehe ia ʻi ha ngalingalimatematikaNgalingaliKo e faingamālie ʻo ha ola, mei he 0 ki he 1 pe 0% ki he 100%. Fika ʻe taha: 1/37 = 2.70%.Lau kotoa → ʻo ha vilo ʻe taha, pea ko ia ai ʻoku lava ke vakaiʻi ʻa e vaʻinga kotoa ʻi ha kiʻi pepa.
Vilo ʻe lahi
ʻOku tauʻatāina ʻa e ngaahi vilo, ko ia ʻoku fakaliunga ʻa e ngaahi ngalingali ʻo ha hokohoko. KulokulapetiKulokulaPeti totongi tatau ki he fika kulokula ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: rouge.Lau kotoa → ʻe ua hoko: (18/37)² = 23.7%. Kulokula pea noaveʻetekaNoaKo e luo lanu mata pē ʻe taha ʻoku ʻikai kāpui ʻe ha peti totongi tatau, peti tasini pe peti kōlomu; ko e tupuʻanga ia ʻo e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino. ʻOku toe ui: noa ʻe taha, 0.Lau kotoa →: (18/37)(1/37) = 1.3%. Hongofulu mā fitu tuʻo ua hoko: (1/37)² = 0.073%, ʻo meimei taha ʻi he 1,369. ʻOku mahuʻinga ʻa e hokohoko ki ha hokohoko pau, kae ʻikai ki ha lau: ko e “kulokula pea ʻuliʻulipetiʻUliʻuliPeti totongi tatau ki he fika ʻuliʻuli ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: noir.Lau kotoa →” ko e 25.0% ka ko e “kulokula ʻe taha mo e ʻuliʻuli ʻe taha ʻi ha vilo ʻe ua, ʻi ha faʻahinga hokohoko pē” ko e 50.0%.
Tuʻo taha pe lahi ange
Ngāueʻaki ʻa e konga fakakakato. Ko e faingamālie ke ʻikai hū ha peti fika ʻe tahapetiPeti fika ʻe tahaFika pē ʻe taha, totongi ʻo e 35:1.Lau kotoa → ʻi ha vilo ʻe 37 ko e (36/37)³⁷ = 36.3%, ko ia ko e faingamālie ke hū tuʻo taha pe lahi ange ko e 63.7%, ʻo ʻikai ko e “meʻa pau” ʻoku ʻamanekina ʻe he kau vaʻinga tokolahi mei ha faingamālie ʻe 37 ʻo e 1 ʻi he 37. ʻOku pehē ʻe he fika tatau ʻoku meimei 1 ʻi he 3 ʻa e faingamālie ke ʻoua ʻe hū ʻa e fika ʻi ha vilo ʻe 37, pea ko ia ai ʻoku fakahā maʻu pē ʻe he papa ola ha ngaahi fika “momoko” siʻi.
Taimi tatali ʻamanekina
ʻI he ʻavalisi ʻoku hū ha fika ʻe taha (peti fika ʻe taha) tuʻo taha ʻi he vilo ʻe 37, ka ʻoku kehekehe lahi ʻaupito ʻa e tatali: ko e tatali lotoloto (median) ʻoku meimei vilo ʻe 25 (ko e vaeua ʻo e taimi ʻoku vave ange) pea ko e tatali ʻe taha ʻi he uofulu ʻoku laka hake ʻi he vilo ʻe 110. Ko e ngaahi taimi tatali ʻo ha founga fakasiomētilika ʻoku lōloa honau iku, pea ko ha tokotaha vaʻinga ʻoku ne “ʻiloʻi” ʻoku taimi ke hū ha fika hili ha vilo ʻe 60 ʻoku ne fakamatalaʻi ha meʻa ʻoku hoko tuʻo taha ʻi he nima.
Ngaahi fehalaaki angamaheni
Tānaki ʻa e ngaahi ngalingali ʻo ha ngaahi meʻa ʻe lava ke hoko fakatouʻosi (ko e kulokula pe taʻehoa ʻoku ʻikai ko e 36/37; ko e 26/37, he ko e fika ʻe hongofulu ʻoku na fakatouʻosi). Fakaliunga ʻa e ngaahi meʻa ʻi he vilo tatau (ko e kulokula mo e taʻehoa ʻi ha vilo ʻe taha ko e 10/37, ʻo ʻikai ko e 18/37 × 18/37). Lau ʻa e ngaahi vilo kuo ʻosi ko ha konga ʻo e hokohoko ʻoku ke peti ki ai he taimí ni: hili ha kulokula ʻe hongofulu, ko e faingamālie ke hoko ha kulokula hono hongofulu mā taha ko e 18/37, ʻo ʻikai ko e (18/37)¹¹.
Ko e hā ʻa e faingamālie ʻi he lulēti, pea ʻoku fēfē ʻene kehe mei he ngalingali?
ʻOku fakahā ʻe he ngaahi kasino ʻa e ngaahi totongipaʻangaTotongiKo e meʻa ʻoku fakafoki ʻe ha peti ikuna, ʻoku fakahā ko e “X ki he 1” ʻi ʻolunga ʻi he peti ʻoku fakafoki.Lau kotoa → ko e faingamālie. ʻOku ikuna ha fika ʻe taha ʻaki ʻa e ngalingali ʻo e 1/37, ko ia ko e faingamālie ke ikuna ʻi he lulēti ʻi ha fika ʻe taha ko e 36 ki he 1 ʻoku fakafepakiʻi. Ko ha totongi ʻo e 35 ki he 1 ʻoku siʻi ai ha iunitipaʻangaIunitiKo e peti tefito ʻoku ngāueʻaki ʻe ha sisitemi pe ha tokotaha vaʻinga. ʻOku fakamatalaʻi ʻa e ngaahi fakalakalaka peti ʻaki ʻa e iuniti koeʻuhi ke ngāue ʻi ha tēpile pē.Lau kotoa → ʻe taha, pea ko e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasinomatematikaTuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasinoKo e konga ʻo e peti takitaha ʻoku tauhi ʻe he kasino ʻi he ʻavalisi: 2.70% ʻi he lulēti ʻIulope.Lau kotoa → ia ʻi hono fōtunga totonu. Liliu: faingamālie fakafepaki = (1 − p)/p; ngalingali = 1/(faingamālie + 1).
Fomula
Ngaahi fehuʻi
(1/37)² = 1/1369 ≈ 0.073%.
36/37 = 97.3%. Ko e toenga ko e noa.
Ko e 37 kotoa ko e 1/37. Ko e hongofulu mā fitu ʻa e fika ʻoku peti lahi taha ki ai, pea ko ha meʻa ia ʻoku fekauʻaki mo e kakai.
Vaʻinga mo e Matematika
ʻUluaki feinga ke ke fakaleleiʻi ʻe koe. Kuo pelu ʻa e tali takitaha; fakaava ia ʻi hoʻo mateuteu.
ʻOku ke peti ki he kulokulapetiKulokulaPeti totongi tatau ki he fika kulokula ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: rouge.Lau kotoa →, ʻi he vilo ki he vilo. Ko e hā ʻa e ngalingali ke hoko mai hoʻo ikuna hono nima ʻi he vilo hono valu tofu pē? Pea ke ʻi ai hoʻo ikuna ʻe nima ʻi loto ʻi he ʻuluaki vilo ʻe valu?
Fakahā ʻa e tali
Tali 12.9%, ʻo ofi ki he 1 ʻi he 8, ki he ikuna hono nima ʻi he vilo hono valu. 33.4% ki he ikuna ʻe nima ʻo aʻu ki ai.
Ko e ikuna hono nima ʻi he vilo hono valu ʻoku ʻuhinga ia ki ha meʻa ʻe ua: ʻoku ikuna ʻa e vilo hono valu, pea ʻoku ʻi he ʻuluaki vilo ʻe fitu ʻa e ikuna ʻe fā tofu pē mo e mole ʻe tolu, ʻi ha hokohoko pē. ʻOku ʻi ai ʻa e founga ʻe 35 ke tuku ai ʻa e ikuna ʻe fā ʻi he vilo ʻe fitu.
Ko ia ko e ngalingali ko e 35 × (18/37)⁵ × (19/37)³ = 35 × 0.02725 × 0.1354 = 12.9%.
Ki he ikuna ʻe nima ʻo aʻu ki he vilo hono valu, tānaki ʻa e faʻahinga konga tatau ki he ikuna hono nima ʻi he vilo hono nima, ono mo e fitu: 2.7% + 7.0% + 10.8% + 12.9% = 33.4%. ʻOku ui ʻe he kau sitetisitika ʻeni ko e tufaki binomial ʻikai (negative binomial): ko e fiha ha feinga ʻoku fiemaʻu ki ha lahi kuo fakapapauʻi ʻo e ngaahi lavameʻa. ʻOku fai ʻe Taylor (2021) ʻa e fehuʻi tatau ʻi ha veʻeteka ʻAmelika, 12.2%.
Meʻa fakaoli
Lau ʻa e ngaahi luo. Vahe ʻaki ʻa e 37. Fakaliunga ki he ngaahi hokohoko. ʻOsi.
Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.