Lēpi Lulēti · Lēpi · Sitetisitika · miniti ʻe 7

Lahi ʻo e Sīpinga

Ko e vilo ʻe fiha ʻoku fiemaʻu kimuʻa pea ʻuhinga ha sīpinga.

Tali nounou

Ke ʻilo ʻaki ha falala feʻunga ha luo ʻoku tō ki ai ʻa e pulu 1 ʻi he 30 ʻo ʻikai ko e 1 ʻi he 37, ʻoku fiemaʻu ʻa e vilo ʻe 4,400 nai. Ko ha luo 1 ʻi he 35, ʻa ia ko e faʻahinga te ne totongi moʻoni, ʻoku fiemaʻu ai ʻa e vilo ʻe 70,000 nai.

1 ʻi he 25
vilo ʻe ~1,100
1 ʻi he 30
vilo ʻe ~4,400
1 ʻi he 35
vilo ʻe ~70,000
longoaʻa
∝ 1/√n

Ko e hā ʻoku lahi ai

Ko e fakaʻilonga, ʻa ia ko ha ngaahi tō lahi ange siʻi pē ʻi he vilo ʻe afe kotoa pē, ʻoku siʻi ia ʻo fakahoa ki he longoaʻa fakapainomiale ʻo e √(n·p·(1−p)) ≈ √(n/37). ʻOku holo ʻa e longoaʻa ʻo hangē ko e 1/√n, ko ia ke vaeua ʻa e taʻepauʻia ʻoku fiemaʻu ai ʻa e vilo ʻo liunga fā. Ko ha luomeʻangāueLuoKo e taha ʻo e ngaahi luo ʻe 37 ʻoku fakafika ʻi he konga vilo. ʻOku toe ui: slot, cup.Lau kotoa → ʻi he 1/30 ʻoku ne maʻu ʻa e tō ʻe 33 ʻi he afe ʻo fakahoa ki he 27 ʻoku ʻamanekina: ko e tō lahi ange ʻe ono, mo ha mavahe fakasitanatematematikaMavahe fakasitanateAka ua ʻo e vēliani; ko e mamaʻo angamaheni ʻo ha ola mei he mahuʻinga ʻamanekina.Lau kotoa → ʻo e nima nai. ʻOku ʻikai lava ke fakamavaheʻi pau ʻa e ongo meʻa ko ia ʻe ha sīpinga ʻe taha ʻo e afe.

Ko e vilo ʻoku fiemaʻu ke ʻilo ai ha luo hehema (mālohi 80%, sivi tafaʻaki ʻe taha 5%)vilo
1 ʻi he 20
≈ 500
1 ʻi he 25
≈ 1,100
1 ʻi he 30
≈ 4,400
1 ʻi he 33
≈ 10,000
1 ʻi he 35
≈ 70,000
vilo
035000≈ 70,000
Ko e ngaahi hehema te ne totongi (1/35 pe lelei ange) ʻoku fiemaʻu ai ʻa e vilo ʻe hongofulu ʻo e ngaahi afe. Ko e ngaahi hehema ʻoku ke lava ʻo sio ki ai ʻi he vilo ʻe afe ʻoku fuʻu lahi ʻaupito pea ʻe ʻikai ke nau moʻui hili ʻa e tokangaʻi ʻo e veʻeteka.

Ko e fomula

Ki ha sivi tafaʻaki ʻe taha ʻo ha luo pē ʻe taha ʻi he tuʻunga 5% mo e mālohi 80%, ko e n ʻoku fiemaʻu ʻoku meimei ko e ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))², ʻa ia ko e p₀ = 1/37 pea ko e p₁ ko e tuʻunga ʻoku mahalo ki ai. ʻOku moʻoni ia ki ha luo pē ʻe taha naʻe fili kimuʻa. Kapau ʻoku ke vakaiʻi ʻa e luo kotoa ʻe 37 ke kumi ʻa e luo vela taha, liunga ua ki he tolu nai ʻa e n ke tauhi ke faitotonu ʻa e tuʻunga ʻo e ngaahi ola pau hala.

Lau fakangāue

Ko ha fika velatui halaFika velaKo ha fika kuo hū lahi ange ʻi he meʻa naʻe ʻamanekina ʻi he taimi siʻi kuo ʻosi. ʻI ha veʻeteka faitotonu ʻoku ʻikai te ne tala ki muʻa ha meʻa.Lau kotoa → hili ʻa e vilo ʻe 300 ko e longoaʻa pē. Hili ʻa e 3,000 ko ha ʻuhinga ia ke tānaki ha 3,000 ʻe taha mei he veʻeteka tatau. Hili ʻa e 30,000 mahalo ko ha veʻeteka ia ʻoku taau ke fua fakatuʻasino. Ko e ngaahi ngāueʻaki kotoa ʻo ha hehema naʻe lēkooti ʻi he hisitōlia naʻe langa ia ʻi he vilo ʻe hongofulu ʻo e ngaahi afe naʻe hiki, pea naʻe fiemaʻu ki he taha kotoa ʻa e ngaahi māhina.

vilo naʻe hikimeʻa ʻoku ke lava ʻo lea faitotonu ki ai
< 500ʻikai ha meʻa ʻo kau ki ha luo
1,000ʻe lava ke fakalele ʻa e sivi chi-square; ʻoku ne ʻilo pē ʻa e ngaahi palopalema lalahi
5,000ʻe ngalingali hā mai ha luo 1/30; ʻe ʻikai hā mai ha 1/35
20,000ʻoku hā mahino ha luo 1/33; ʻe lava ke fakatātaaʻi ʻa e ngaahi konga
70,000+ʻe lava ke fakapapauʻi ha luo 1/35 ʻoku maʻu tupu
ha fika pē, kuo fakataha mei he ngaahi veʻeteka kehekeheʻikai ha meʻa; ʻoku ke sivi ha fefioʻaki

Totongi ʻo e fakamatala

ʻI he vilo ʻe 50 ʻi he houa, ko e vilo ʻe 10,000 ko e houa ʻe 200 ʻo e hiki, pe ko e ngaahi uike lahi ʻo e hiki tatau ʻo e ngaahi hisitōlia kuo pulusi, mei ha ʻulu ʻo e veʻetekameʻangāueʻUlu ʻo e veʻetekaʻUhinga tatau mo e konga vilo: ko e konga ʻoku vilo ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e ngaahi fika.Lau kotoa → pē ʻe taha kuo ʻilo, ʻa ia naʻe ʻikai fetongi pe toe fokotuʻu foʻou hono ngaahi meʻa vahe ʻe he kasino ʻi he lolotonga ko ia. Ko e meʻa ko eni, ʻo ʻikai ko e sitetisitika, ʻoku mate ai ʻa e vaʻinga ʻaki ʻa e hehema: ʻoku nounou ange ʻa e takai ʻo e tokangaʻi ʻi he takai ʻo e tānaki fakamatala.

Lau ʻo e Ngaahi Hisitōlia Vilo kuo Pulusi

Lahi ʻo e sīpinga ki he tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino

ʻOku pehē ʻe he fika tatau pē ʻa e lōloa ʻo e taimi ʻoku fiemaʻu ki ha tokotaha vaʻinga ke sio ki he tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasinomatematikaTuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasinoKo e konga ʻo e peti takitaha ʻoku tauhi ʻe he kasino ʻi he ʻavalisi: 2.70% ʻi he lulēti ʻIulope.Lau kotoa → ʻi hono ngaahi ola ʻoʻona: ko e vilo peti totongi tatau ʻe 1,400 nai ki ha sikima ʻe taha, 10,000 ke hā mahino taʻehanoloto ʻa e tuʻunga lelei. Ko ha taha pē ʻoku ne pehē ʻoku ngāue ha sisitemi ʻi ha vilo siʻi ange ai, ʻoku ne lipooti pē ʻa e longoaʻa.

Fomula

n ≈ ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))²
σ(count) = √(n·p·(1−p))

Ngaahi fehuʻi

ʻOku ʻi ai ha hala nounou?

ʻOku tokoni ke sivi ʻa e ngaahi kongaveʻetekaKongaKo ha konga fakavilo hokohoko ʻo e ngaahi luo ʻi he veʻeteka, ʻoku kehe ia mei ha kulupu ʻi he palani ʻo e tēpile.Lau kotoa → ʻo ʻikai ko e ngaahi luo, koeʻuhi ko ha palopalema fakatuʻasino ʻoku faʻa uesia ai ha konga ʻo e veʻeteka pea ʻoku fakataha ʻa e fakaʻilonga ʻi he ngaahi luo. ʻOku ʻikai ke ne liliu ʻa e tuʻunga ʻo e lahi.

ʻE lava ke u fakataha ʻa e fakamatala mei he veʻeteka tatau ʻi he ngaahi ʻaho kehekehe?

ʻIo, kapau ko e ʻulu ʻo e veʻeteka tatau pea naʻe ʻikai ngaohi. Ko e konga faingataʻa ia ke ʻilo.

Ko e hā ʻa e mālohi 80%?

Ko e tō ʻo e ngāue. ʻOku ʻuhinga ia ʻe ʻilo ha hehema moʻoni ʻo e lahi kuo fakahā ʻi he taimi ʻe fā ʻi he nima.

Meʻa fakaoli

ʻOku holo ʻa e longoaʻa ʻo hangē ko e 1/√n. ʻOku holo vave ange ʻa e faʻa kātaki.

ʻOku holo ʻa e longoaʻa ʻo hangē ko e 1/√n. ʻOku holo vave ange ʻa e faʻa kātaki.

Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, paaki hono 3, 1968. ʻOsi ʻa e paʻanga ʻa e tokotaha peti, vahe XIV.
  2. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1992.
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