ʻE Lava ke Ke Ikunaʻi ʻa e Lulēti? Founga ke Ikuna ai ʻi he Lulēti
ʻE ikuna fēfē ʻi he lulēti? ʻOku ʻikai ʻaki ha sīpinga peti. Mahalo, ʻi he hisitōlia, ʻaki ha veʻeteka maumau pe ha tīla ʻe lava ke tomuʻa ʻilo, pea ʻaki pē ha feinga lahi ʻaupito.
ʻOku ʻikai lava ʻe he ngaahi sisitemi peti ʻo ikunaʻi ʻa e lulēti: ʻoku tānaki fakataha ʻa e ngaahi mahuʻinga ʻamanekinamatematikaMahuʻinga ʻamanekinaKo e ola ʻavalisi ʻi he peti takitaha ʻi he taimi lōloa. −1/37 ʻo e peti ki he peti ʻIulope angamaheni kotoa pē.Lau kotoa → pea ʻoku ʻi lalo ʻi he noa ʻa e peti kotoa pē. Ko e ngaahi ikuna pē kuo tohi naʻe haʻu ia mei hono ngāueʻaki ʻa e saienisi fakaenatula ʻo e veʻeteka, ʻo ʻikai ko e ngaahi sīpinga.
Ko e hā ʻoku taʻelavameʻa ai ʻa e ngaahi sisitemi
ʻOku ʻi ai ʻi he peti kotoa pē ʻa e EV = −1/37 ʻo hono lahi. Ko ha hokohoko pē ʻo e ngaahi peti, neongo pe naʻe fili fēfē mei he ngaahi ola kuo hili, ʻoku ʻi ai hono EV = −1/37 ʻo e fakakātoa naʻe peti. Ko ha fakamoʻoni matematika ia ki he fakakātoa ʻo e ngaahi meʻa liliu taʻefakataumuʻa, ʻo ʻikai ko ha meʻa naʻe sio ki ai ʻe lava ke fakafoki ʻe ha sisitemi lelei ange. Naʻe fakamoʻoniʻi ia ʻe Joseph Doob mo Paul Halmos ʻi he ngaahi taʻu 1930, pea naʻe fokotuʻu ʻe Edward Thorp, ʻa ia naʻa ne ikunaʻi moʻoni ʻa e blackjack ʻaki hono lau ʻa e ngaahi kaati, ʻa e ngaahi tuʻunga ʻoku fiemaʻu ki ai: ko e peti kotoa ʻoku ʻi lalo ʻi he noa, ko e ngaahi vilo tauʻatāinamatematikaNgaahi vilo tauʻatāinaʻOku tatau pē ʻa e ngalingali ʻi he vilo takitaha neongo pe ko e hā naʻe hoko kimuʻa. Ko e tefito ia ʻo e fakatatau kotoa pē ʻi he uepisaiti ni.Lau kotoa →, ko ha peti lahi taha ʻo e tēpile mo ha peti siʻi taha ʻo e tēpile. ʻOku ʻomi ʻe heʻene tohi ako ʻo e 1966 ha fakamoʻoni faingofua.
Ngaahi Fakangatangata ʻo e Tēpile LulētiNgaahi Vilo Tauʻatāina ʻi he Lulēti
Ko e hā kuo ngāue
Ko e meʻa ʻe tolu, pea ʻoku kau kotoa ai ʻa e veʻeteka fakaesino. Hehema: ko ha veʻeteka ʻoku ʻikai tatau ʻa e ngalingali ʻo hono ngaahi luomeʻangāueLuoKo e taha ʻo e ngaahi luo ʻe 37 ʻoku fakafika ʻi he konga vilo. ʻOku toe ui: slot, cup.Lau kotoa →, ʻoku ʻilo ʻaki hono tohi ʻa e ngaahi afe ʻo e vilo. Tomuʻa fakafuofua: ko hono fakafuofua ʻa e taimi ʻo e pulumeʻangāuePuluKo e kiʻi pulu siʻisiʻi ʻoku tolongi ʻi he hala ʻo fehangahangai mo e konga vilo. Ko e ngaahi pulu ʻo onopooni ʻoku ngaohi ʻaki ʻa e ivorine pe Teflon, 18–21 mm.Lau kotoa → mo e konga vilomeʻangāueKonga viloKo e konga ʻo e veʻeteka ʻoku vilo pea ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e ngaahi luo.Lau kotoa → ke fakafuofua ʻa e kongaveʻetekaKongaKo ha konga fakavilo hokohoko ʻo e ngaahi luo ʻi he veʻeteka, ʻoku kehe ia mei ha kulupu ʻi he palani ʻo e tēpile.Lau kotoa → ʻe tō ki ai, naʻe fai ia ʻaki ha ngaahi komipiuta fufū mei he ngaahi taʻu 1970 ki muʻa. Fakaʻilonga ʻo e tīla: ko e fakakaukau ʻoku tatau feʻunga ʻa e tukuange ʻe ha tīla ʻo e pulu ke tomuʻa ʻilo ai ʻa e tō, ka naʻe ʻikai teitei fakamoʻoniʻi lelei. ʻOku fiemaʻu ʻe he meʻa ʻe tolu ko ia ha veʻeteka fakaesino, ha sio fuoloa mo ha kasino kuo teʻeki ke ne ʻilo.
ʻOku fakatohi ʻe Joseph Jagger ʻa e ngaahi veʻeteka ʻi Monte Carlo, ʻilo ʻa e ngaahi fika ʻoku fuʻu tuʻo lahi hono hā mai, pea ikuna lahi kae ʻoua kuo hikihiki ʻe he kasino ʻa hono ngaahi veʻeteka pea toki fetongi ia.
ʻOku “maumauʻi ʻe Charles Wells ʻa e pangikē” ʻaki ha monūʻia makehe mo ha sisitemi naʻe ʻikai teitei te ne fakamatalaʻi. ʻOku ne toe foki mai ʻi he faʻahitaʻu momoko ko ia pea toe mole ha konga ʻo ia.
ʻOku langa ʻe Edward Thorp mo Claude Shannon ʻa e ʻuluaki komipiuta ʻoku tui ke fakafuofua ʻa e taimi ʻo ha pulu lulēti. ʻOku ngāue ʻa e misini ʻi he taimi ʻe niʻihi pē; ʻoku liʻaki ʻa e ngāue.
ʻOku ngāueʻaki ʻe he Eudaemons mei Santa Cruz ʻa e ngaahi komipiuta fufū ʻi he ngaahi kasino ʻo Nevada. Ko ha tuʻunga lelei moʻoni, meʻa fakaʻuhila taʻefalalaʻanga, ʻikai ha koloa lahi.
ʻOku fakatohi ʻe Gonzalo García-Pelayo mo hono fāmili ʻa e meimei vilo ʻe 5,000 ʻi he veʻeteka takitaha ofi ki Mateliti, ʻilo ʻa e ngaahi veʻeteka hehema, ikuna, tāpuniʻi ke ʻoua te nau hū mai, pea sio ki hono fakafoki ʻe he fakamaau ʻa e tapu.
ʻOku ikunaʻi ʻe ha kau vaʻinga ʻe toko tolu ʻa e £1.3 miliona ʻi he Ritz ʻi Lonitoni ʻaki hono tomuʻa fakafuofua ʻa e tō ʻa e pulu. Naʻe lipooti ha leisa ka naʻe ʻikai teitei fakahā naʻe ʻi ai; ʻoku nau tauhi ʻa e paʻanga naʻe ikunaʻi.
ʻOku pulusi ʻe Small mo Tse ha pepa fisiki ʻoku ne fakahā ʻe lava ke maʻu ha tuʻunga lelei ʻo ha peseti siʻi ʻaki hono fakafuofua ʻa e taimi ʻi he ngaahi tuʻunga ʻo e lēpi.
Ko e hā ʻoku ʻikai kei ngāue ai
ʻOku fetongiʻaki ʻe he ngaahi kasino ʻa e ngaahi ʻulu ʻo e veʻetekameʻangāueʻUlu ʻo e veʻetekaʻUhinga tatau mo e konga vilo: ko e konga ʻoku vilo ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e ngaahi fika.Lau kotoa → ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e ngaahi polameʻangāuePolaKo e konga ʻi tuʻa ʻo e veʻeteka ʻoku ʻikai ngaue: ko e kapa papa pe meʻa fakatahaʻi ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e hala ʻo e pulu mo e konga fakahifo, pea ʻoku vilo ʻi loto ai ʻa e konga vilo.Lau kotoa →, fakatotonu ʻa e tuʻu tonu ʻa e ngaahi pola, fua ʻa e ngaahi luo pea fetongi ʻa e ngaahi meʻa vahemeʻangāueMeʻa vaheKo e meʻa vahe ukamea ʻi he vahaʻa ʻo e luo ʻe ua ʻi he veʻeteka.Lau kotoa → ʻo fakatatau ki ha taimitepile, ʻa ia ʻoku ne taʻofi ʻa e hehema. ʻOku tāpuni ʻe he ngaahi sitiutio hangatonu ʻa e peti ki muʻa pea tuai ʻa e pulu pea fakapapau ʻa e tuai ʻo e fakamafola, ʻa ia ʻoku ne taʻofi ʻa e fakafuofua taimi. ʻOku fakahalaia ʻe he lahi taha ʻo e ngaahi puleʻanga ʻa e ngaahi meʻa tomuʻa fakafuofua. ʻOku fekau ʻa e kau tīla ke fakakehekehe ʻenau tukuange. Ko e tali faitotonu ki ha veʻeteka ʻo onopooni kuo tauhi lelei ʻi ha kasino pe sitiutio kuo laiseni ko e ʻikai.
ʻE ikunaʻi fēfē ʻa e lulēti, ʻi he fakakaukau pē: ko e hā ʻe fiemaʻu
Pehē ʻoku lavameʻa ha luo ʻi he 1 ʻi he 33 ʻo ʻikai ko e 1 ʻi he 37. Ko ha peti fika ʻe tahapetiPeti fika ʻe tahaFika pē ʻe taha, totongi ʻo e 35:1.Lau kotoa → ki ai ʻoku ʻi ai hono EV = 35/33 − 32/33 = +3/33 ≈ +9%. Ke ʻilo ʻoku hehema ʻa e luo ʻo ʻikai ko e monūʻia pē, ʻoku fiemaʻu ʻa e meimei vilo ʻe 10,000 kuo tohi mei he veʻeteka pau ko ia; ke ngāueʻaki ia ʻoku fiemaʻu ke ʻoua ʻe liliu ʻa e veʻeteka lolotonga hoʻo peti ai. ʻOku fakamatalaʻi ʻe he ngaahi peesi Lēpi ʻa e sitetisitika; ʻoku fakamatalaʻi ʻe he ngaahi peesi Hisitōlia ʻa e meʻa naʻe hoko ki he kakai naʻa nau fai ia.
Ko e tali faitotonu
Ki he tokotaha lau ʻoku ʻi ai haʻane sisitemi: ʻe ʻikai ngāue ia, pea ʻe lava ke ke fakamoʻoniʻi ia ʻaki ʻa e ngaahi meʻa faʻifaʻitaki ʻi he uepisaiti ni ʻi ha hoʻatā pē ʻe taha. Ki he tokotaha lau ʻoku ʻi ai haʻane tohi mo e faʻa kātaki: ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e hehema ʻi he fakakaukau ka ʻoku toʻo ia ʻe he ngaahi tekinikale ʻi he moʻoni. Ki he tokotaha kotoa pē: ko e lulēti ko ha fakatau ia. Totongi ha totongi ʻoku ke fiemālie ki ai, ʻi ha vave ʻoku ke fili, ʻi ha veʻeteka ʻoku noaveʻetekaNoaKo e luo lanu mata pē ʻe taha ʻoku ʻikai kāpui ʻe ha peti totongi tatau, peti tasini pe peti kōlomu; ko e tupuʻanga ia ʻo e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino. ʻOku toe ui: noa ʻe taha, 0.Lau kotoa → ʻe taha pea mo e la partagelaoLa partageLao faka-Falanisē: ʻi he hū ʻa e noa, ʻoku fakafoki ʻa e vaeua ʻo ha peti totongi tatau. ʻOku vaeua ai ʻa e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino ʻi he ngaahi peti ko ia ki he 1.35%.Lau kotoa → kapau te ke maʻu.
Ngaahi fehuʻi
ʻIkai. Ko e kau “ikuna” ʻiloa ʻi he sisitemi hangē ko Charles Wells naʻa nau ikuna ʻaki ʻa e monūʻia pea toe mole ha konga ʻo ia.
ʻI he fakakaukau. ʻI ha kasino pe sitiutio ʻo onopooni ʻe ʻilo mo fakatonutonu ia ki muʻa pea ke maʻu ha fakamatala feʻunga ke ngāueʻaki ia.
ʻIkai ʻi he lahi taha ʻo e ngaahi puleʻanga, pea ʻoku ʻikai lava ke ngāueʻaki ki he ngaahi tēpile hangatonu ʻoku tāpuni ʻa e peti ki muʻa pea tuai ʻa e pulu.
Meʻa fakaoli
Fisiki, ʻo ʻikai ko e ngaahi sīpinga. Pea ʻikai kei pehē.
Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga
- RouletteDoc. Roulette strategies overview.
- Roulette77. Roulette strategies overview.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. Elementary Probability.
- Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.”
- Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.”
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel.
- Chellel, K. “The Gambler Who Beat Roulette.”