Ngaahi Tui Hala · Ngaahi Tui Hala · miniti ʻe 6

Tui Hala: ʻOku Totonu ke Hū ha Fika

“Kuo teʻeki hū ʻa e hongofulu-mā-fitu ʻi he vilo ʻe 150. ʻOku totonu ke hū.” ʻOku ʻikai.

Tali nounou

Ko ha fika kuo teʻeki hā ʻi ha taimi lōloa ʻoku tatau tofu pē hono ngalingali ʻi he vilo hoko mo ha fika pē kehe: 1/37. Ko e tui ʻoku “totonu ke hū” ia ko e fehalaaki ʻa e tokotaha peti ia ʻoku fakapipiki ki ai ha papa ola.

p(17 hoko)
1/37, maʻu pē
p(ʻikai ha 17 ʻi he vilo ʻe 150)
1.7%
faʻa hoko ia ʻi ha feituʻu
maʻu pē
tuʻutuʻuni
tui hala

Ko e taukave

ʻOku fakahā ʻe he ngaahi kasino ʻa e ola fakamuimui ʻe 20 ki he 500 pea ʻoku faʻa fakaʻilongaʻi ʻa e ngaahi fika “momoko” kuo teʻeki hū ʻi ha taimi. ʻOku lau ʻe he kau vaʻinga ʻa e papa, sio kuo ʻikai ha 17 ʻi he vilo ʻe 150, pea peti ki ai koeʻuhi ʻoku pau ke hū. Ko e fakakaukau ko e ʻi he taimi lōloa ʻoku hū ʻa e fika kotoa pē ʻi he 1/37 ʻo e taimi, ko ia ko ha fika ʻoku tōmui kuo pau ke ne maʻu hake.

Ko e hā ʻoku hala ai

ʻOku tauʻatāina ʻa e ngaahi vilo. ʻOku ʻikai ʻilo ʻe he pulumeʻangāuePuluKo e kiʻi pulu siʻisiʻi ʻoku tolongi ʻi he hala ʻo fehangahangai mo e konga vilo. Ko e ngaahi pulu ʻo onopooni ʻoku ngaohi ʻaki ʻa e ivorine pe Teflon, 18–21 mm.Lau kotoa → kuo ʻikai ha 17, pea ʻoku tatau pē hono lahi ʻo e luomeʻangāueLuoKo e taha ʻo e ngaahi luo ʻe 37 ʻoku fakafika ʻi he konga vilo. ʻOku toe ui: slot, cup.Lau kotoa → mo kimuʻa. ʻOku ofi ʻa e vahevahe ʻi he taimi lōloa ʻi hono fakavaivaiʻi, ʻikai ʻi ha fakatonutonu: hili ha toe vilo ʻe 10,000 ko e vahaʻa ʻo e vilo ʻe 150 ko ha kiʻi fehalaaki siʻi pē, ʻikai koeʻuhi naʻe hū lahi ange ʻa e 17 kae koeʻuhi naʻe tupu ʻa e sīpinga. ʻOku ʻikai fiemaʻu ʻe he lao ʻo e ngaahi fika lalahimatematikaLao ʻo e ngaahi fika lalahiʻOku ofi ange ʻa e ʻavalisi ʻo e ngaahi ola tauʻatāina ki he mahuʻinga ʻamanekina ʻi he tupu ʻa e lahi ʻo e ngaahi ʻahiʻahi.Lau kotoa → ke maʻu hake ha fika; ʻoku fiemaʻu pē ke siʻisiʻi ʻa e ngaahi liliu kuo hoko ʻi hono fakahoa ki he fakakātoa.

Ko e faʻa ʻikai hā ʻa ha fika pau ʻi he vilo ʻe k pe lahi ange%
vilo ʻe 37
36.3%
vilo ʻe 74
13.2%
vilo ʻe 100
6.5%
vilo ʻe 150
1.7%
vilo ʻe 200
0.4%
%
018.1536.3%
(36/37)ᵏ. ʻI he fika ʻe 37 ʻi he veʻeteka kotoa pē ʻi he kasino kotoa pē, ʻoku hoko ʻi ha feituʻu he taimi ni ha ʻikai hā ʻo e vilo ʻe 150.

Ko e hā ʻoku ongoʻi totonu ai

Koeʻuhi ʻi he ngaahi konga kehe kotoa pē ʻo e moʻui, ʻoku fakaʻilonga ʻe he ʻikai hā ʻa e aʻu mai: ko ha pasi kuo teʻeki haʻu ʻi ha miniti ʻe uofulu ʻoku ngalingali lahi ange ke haʻu ʻi he miniti ʻe nima hoko. Ko e ʻuhinga he ʻoku ʻi ai ha taimitēpile ʻa e ngaahi pasi. ʻOku ʻikai ha taimitēpile ʻa e lulēti; ʻoku ʻi ai hono ngalingalimatematikaNgalingaliKo e faingamālie ʻo ha ola, mei he 0 ki he 1 pe 0% ki he 100%. Fika ʻe taha: 1/37 = 2.70%.Lau kotoa →, pea ko ha ngalingali ʻoku ʻikai ko ha vahe pau. ʻOku totonu ʻa e ongoʻi ki he lahi taha ʻo e māmani pea hala ki he veʻeteka.

Ko e sivi

Lekooti ha fika “momoko” ʻe teau mei he ngaahi papa ola pea peti ki he taha kotoa ʻi he vilo hoko ʻe 37. Ko e tuʻunga hū ʻe 1/37 ki he vilo, tatau mo ha fika pē naʻe fili taʻefakataumuʻa, tānaki pe toʻo ʻa e longoaʻa. Ko e papa ola ko ha fakamatala ia ʻo e kuohili. ʻOku ʻikai ha meʻa ai ke tala kikite ki ha veʻeteka faitotonu, pea ʻi ha veʻeteka hehemalēpiVeʻeteka hehemaKo ha veʻeteka ʻoku ʻi ai hano ngaahi maumau fakatuʻasino ʻoku ne ʻai ke ngalingali lahi ange ʻa e ngaahi luo ʻe niʻihi ʻi he 1/37. ʻOku tātāitaha, pea ʻoku ʻiloʻi pē ʻaki ha ngaahi afe ʻo e ngaahi vilo kuo hiki.Lau kotoa → (ʻa ia ʻe fiemaʻu ha vilo ʻe lauafe ke fakapapauʻi) ko e ngaahi fika velatui halaFika velaKo ha fika kuo hū lahi ange ʻi he meʻa naʻe ʻamanekina ʻi he taimi siʻi kuo ʻosi. ʻI ha veʻeteka faitotonu ʻoku ʻikai te ne tala ki muʻa ha meʻa.Lau kotoa →, ʻikai ko e ngaahi fika momoko, ʻe peti ki ai.

Lahi ʻo e SīpingaNgaahi Ola ʻo e Lulēti: Lau ʻo e Papa

Ko e tui hala fakafoki

“ʻOku vela ʻa e hongofulu-mā-fitu, peti ki ai” ko e fehalaaki tatau ia kuo fulihi hono fakaʻilonga. ʻOku tatau ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻamanekinamatematikaMahuʻinga ʻamanekinaKo e ola ʻavalisi ʻi he peti takitaha ʻi he taimi lōloa. −1/37 ʻo e peti ki he peti ʻIulope angamaheni kotoa pē.Lau kotoa → ʻo e ongo tui mo hono kuikui ho mata ʻo tuhu: −2.70% ʻo e lahi ʻo e peti. ʻI he Vaʻinga Fakatātā, fakalele ʻa e hisitōlia pea lau ʻa e faʻa hū ʻa ha fika momokotui halaFika momokoKo ha fika kuo ʻikai hū ʻi ha ngaahi vilo lahi. ʻOku ʻikai ha fakamatala ia ʻe taha ki he ngaahi vilo ʻi he kahaʻu ʻi ha veʻeteka faitotonu.Lau kotoa → ʻi he vilo hoko ʻe 37; ko e tali ko e 63.7% nai, tatau tofu pē mo ha fika pē kehe.

Ngaahi fehuʻi

ʻOku fakahā ʻe he kasino ʻa e ngaahi fika momoko ke kākaaʻi ʻa e kau vaʻinga?

ʻOku ne fakahā kinautolu koeʻuhi ʻoku kole ʻe he kau vaʻinga. ʻOku totonu ʻa e papa pea taʻeʻaonga.

Fēfē ha fika kuo teʻeki hū ʻi he vilo ʻe 500?

(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: taʻefaʻahoko, pea ʻoku kei 1/37 ʻi he vilo hoko. Kapau ʻoku hoko maʻu pē ia ʻi ha veʻeteka ʻe taha, ko ha fehuʻi ia ʻo e hehema, pea ko e tali ko hono fakamamaʻo mei he fika ko ia.

ʻOku ʻi ai ha taimi ʻoku totonu ai ke hū ha fika?

ʻIkai.

Meʻa fakaoli

Ko ha ngalingali ʻoku ʻikai ko ha vahe pau.

Ko ha ngalingali ʻoku ʻikai ko ha vahe pau.

Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, paaki hono 3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin, vahe XIV.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Vahe 13, lulēti.
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