Founga Lulēti D'Alembert
ʻOku tānaki ʻe he founga lulēti D’Alembert ha iuniti ʻe taha ʻi he hili ha mole pea toʻo ha iuniti ʻe taha ʻi he hili ha ikuna.
ʻOku ʻikai ke ne ikunaʻi ʻa e veʻeteka. Ko e fakalakalaka petifoungaFakalakalaka petiKo ha lao pē ʻoku ne liliu ʻa e lahi ʻo e peti ʻo fakatatau ki he ngaahi ola kimuʻa. Ko e ngaahi fakalakalaka fakafepaki ʻoku nau hiki hake ia hili ha mole, ko e ngaahi fakalakalaka fakapapau hili ha ikuna.Lau kotoa → angamaheni ia ʻoku mafolalahi taha: ʻoku hiki māmālie hake ʻa e ngaahi peti, ʻoku fakalotolotoi ʻa e ngaahi holo ʻa e paʻanga, pea ʻoku ʻikai ala ki he tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino.
ʻAlu ʻi he sisitemi
Ko ha mole ʻoku hiki hake ʻaki ha sitepu ʻe taha. Ko ha ikuna ʻoku foki ʻaki ha sitepu ʻe taha.
ʻOku fua ʻa e ngaahi peti mo e ola ʻaki ʻa e iuniti ʻo e peti tefito.
Ko e sisitemi lulēti D’Alembert, sitepu ki he sitepu
Peti ha iunitipaʻangaIunitiKo e peti tefito ʻoku ngāueʻaki ʻe ha sisitemi pe ha tokotaha vaʻinga. ʻOku fakamatalaʻi ʻa e ngaahi fakalakalaka peti ʻaki ʻa e iuniti koeʻuhi ke ngāue ʻi ha tēpile pē.Lau kotoa → ʻe taha. Kapau te ke mole, ko e peti hoko ʻoku lahi ange ʻaki ha iuniti ʻe taha. Kapau te ke ikuna, ʻoku siʻi ange ʻaki ha iuniti ʻe taha, ka ʻoku ʻikai siʻi hifo ʻi he taha. Ko ia pē. Fakakaukau ki ha meʻa vaʻinga hiki-hifo: ʻoku hiki hake ʻe he mole kotoa ʻa e peti ʻaki ha sitepu ʻe taha pea ʻoku fakahifo ia ʻe he ikuna kotoa. Ko e tui ʻoku ʻi lalo ai ko e ngaahi ikuna mo e ngaahi mole te na tatau, ko ia ʻe foki ʻa e peti ki he peti tefito. Ko e meʻa ʻoku manako ai ʻa e kakai ko e hoa kotoa ʻo ha ikuna ʻe taha mo ha mole ʻe taha ʻi ha ongo peti ʻoku na ofi ʻoku ʻomi ai ha +1 iuniti: mole ʻa e 3, ikuna ʻa e 4, ola kakato +1.
ʻOku hangē ko e hā ha taimi vaʻinga?
Mālie, mo ha peti ʻoku kaka māmālie hake. Koeʻuhī ʻoku lahi ange ʻa e ngaahi mole ʻi he ngaahi ikuna, 19 ki he 18 ʻi he peti totongi tatau, ʻoku hiki māmālie hake ʻa e peti ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga lōloa. Koeʻuhī ʻoku lahi taha ʻa e peti ʻi hoʻo mole mo siʻi ange ʻi hoʻo ikuna, ko e peti ʻavalisi ʻi he ngaahi vahaʻa taimi mole ʻoku lahi ange ia ʻi he peti ʻavalisi ʻi he ngaahi vahaʻa taimi ikuna. ʻOku molemole ange ʻa e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga ʻi he MartingalefoungaMartingaleFakalakalaka peti ʻoku ne fakaua ʻa e peti hili ʻa e mole takitaha. Vakai ki he konga Ngaahi Founga ki he meʻa ʻoku ne fai mo e meʻa ʻoku ʻikai te ne fai.Lau kotoa →, mo e ngaahi holo ʻa e paʻangapaʻangaHolo ʻa e paʻangaKo e holo mei he tumutumu ʻo e paʻanga vaʻinga ki ha tuʻunga māʻulalo kimui ange ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga. Ko e holo lahi taha ko e holo pehē ʻoku lahi taha.Lau kotoa → fakalotolotoi pea ʻikai ha mato, pea ʻoku mole siʻi lahi ange ʻi he peti tataufoungaPeti tatauPeti ʻaki ʻa e paʻanga tatau ʻi he vilo kotoa pē. Ko e tefito ia ʻoku fakahoa ki ai ʻa e fakalakalaka peti kotoa pē.Lau kotoa → ʻi he ʻavalisi koeʻuhī ʻoku lahi ange ʻa e peti ʻavalisi.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- fika lotoloto (median) −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
ʻOku ngāue koā ʻa e sisitemi D’Alembert?
ʻIkai. ʻOku ikuna ha taimi vaʻinga ʻoku tatau, ka ʻoku ʻikai nofo tatau ʻa e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga. Hili ha ikuna ʻe w mo ha mole ʻe l ʻi ha ngaahi peti ʻoku ofi, ko e ola kakato ko e iuniti ʻe w − l tānaki ha fakatonutonu ki he feituʻu naʻa ke ʻi ai ʻi he tuʻunga. Kapau ko e w = l, ko e ola ko e +w iuniti tofu pē, ʻa ia ʻoku ngali ko ha tupu fakapapau. Ko e palopalema ʻoku ʻikai ko e w = l ʻa e meʻa ʻoku ʻamanekina: ʻi he vilo ʻe 37 ʻoku ke ʻamanekina ha ikuna ʻe 18 mo ha mole ʻe 19. Ko ha mole lahi ange ʻe taha ʻi ha peti kuo kaka hake ki he, hangē ko ʻeni, iuniti ʻe 8 ʻoku lahi ange hono totongi ʻi he hoa +1 ʻe valu naʻe maʻu. ʻOku aʻu ʻa e ʻamanekina ki he −1/37 ʻo e fakakātoa ʻo e petipaʻangaFakakātoa ʻo e petiKo e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga naʻe peti ʻaki ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga pe vahaʻa taimi, kau ai ʻa e paʻanga naʻe ikunaʻi kuo toe peti ʻaki. ʻOku toe ui: handle, action.Lau kotoa → kotoa, hangē ko ia ʻoku totonu.
Ko e hā ʻoku faʻa ikuna ai ʻa e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga nounou?
Ko e meʻa ʻoku tatau ko ha konga ia ʻo ha lao ʻe taha ʻoku kau ai ʻa e taimi vaʻinga kotoa. Ui ko D ʻa e lahi ʻo e ngaahi mole toʻo ʻa e lahi ʻo e ngaahi ikuna. Ko ha taimi vaʻinga ʻo ha vilo ʻe N ʻoku kamata ʻi he iuniti ʻe taha ʻoku ngata ia ʻi he iuniti ʻe (N − D²)/2 − D, kapau ʻoku ʻikai ikuna ha peti ʻo e iuniti ʻe taha (hili ha ikuna pehē ʻoku ʻikai ha feituʻu māʻulalo ange ke ʻalu ki ai ʻa e peti). ʻI he D = 0 ko e +N/2 ia, ko e +w ʻo e konga ʻi ʻolunga. ʻOku lau fakasikuea ʻa e mole lahi ange takitaha: hili ha vilo ʻe 100 ko ha D ʻo e 4 ʻoku kei toe ai ʻa e +38 iuniti, ko ha D ʻo e 8 ʻoku toe ai ʻa e +10, pea ko ha D ʻo e 10 ʻoku toe ai ʻa e −10. ʻOku mafola ʻa e D ʻe he faingamālie pē ʻaki ʻa e meimei √N, ko e hongofulu hili ha vilo ʻe 100, pea ʻi ha vaʻinga ʻoku ʻikai ha noaveʻetekaNoaKo e luo lanu mata pē ʻe taha ʻoku ʻikai kāpui ʻe ha peti totongi tatau, peti tasini pe peti kōlomu; ko e tupuʻanga ia ʻo e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino. ʻOku toe ui: noa ʻe taha, 0.Lau kotoa → ʻoku fakaʻauha tofu pē ʻa e ngaahi tupu ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga tatau lahi ʻe he ngaahi mole ʻo e niʻihi siʻi ʻoku taʻetatau. ʻOku tānaki ʻe he noa ha mole lahi ange ʻe taha ʻi he vilo kotoa ʻe 37 ʻi he ʻavalisi, pea koeʻuhī ʻoku fakasikuea ʻa e D ʻoku tupu vave ange hono totongi ʻi he taimi vaʻinga. Ko e lahi taha ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga ʻo aʻu ki he vilo ʻe 100 ʻoku ngata mo e tupu; ʻoku ʻikai pehē ʻa e ʻavalisi, pea ʻi he hili ha vilo ʻe teau lahi ʻoku mole foki ʻa e lahi taha ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga.
Fēfē kapau te ke fakafoki ia?
Ko e Contra-D’Alembert, ʻoku ui foki ko e D’Alembert fakafoki, ʻoku ne tānaki ha iuniti hili ha ikuna pea toʻo ha iuniti ʻe taha hili ha mole. ʻOku ne fakatātā fakafoki tofu pē ʻa e founga tefito. Kapau ʻoku ʻikai mole ha peti ʻo e iuniti ʻe taha, ko ha taimi vaʻinga ʻo ha vilo ʻe N ʻoku ngata ia ʻi he iuniti ʻe (D² − N)/2 + D, ʻa ia ko e D ʻeni ko e ngaahi ikuna toʻo ʻa e ngaahi mole. ʻOku mole ʻe ha taimi vaʻinga tatau ʻa e konga ʻo ha iuniti ʻi he vilo takitaha, pea ko ha hokohoko ikuna pē ʻoku mamaʻo ʻi muʻa ʻi he ngaahi mole ʻoku ʻomi ai ha tupu. Ko ia ko e lahi taha ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga ʻoku mole siʻi pea ko e niʻihi siʻi ʻoku ikuna lahi, ko e fōtunga fehangahangai ia mo e founga tefito, pea ko e ʻavalisi ko e 2.70% tatau pē ʻo e paʻanga naʻe peti.
Ko hai ʻa d’Alembert?
Ko Jean le Rond d’Alembert, ko ha tokotaha matematika mo ha tokotaha ʻētita fakataha ʻo e Encyclopédie, naʻa ne fakakikihi ʻi ha fakamatala ʻo e 1754 ko e hili ha hokohoko ʻulu, ʻoku ngalingali lahi ange ʻa e mui. Naʻe hala ia, pea ko e fehalaaki ʻoku ui ʻaki hono hingoa ko ha faʻahinga ia ʻo e fehalaaki ʻa e tokotaha peti. Naʻe toki fakahingoa ʻa e sisitemi D’Alembert ʻi he lulēti kiate ia ʻamui ange, ʻe he kau peti naʻa nau tui tatau. Naʻe ʻikai te ne faʻu ia pea ngalingali naʻe ʻikai te ne poupouʻi ia.
ʻOku ʻi ai koā ha ngaahi faʻahinga kehe?
Ko e Contra-D’Alembert, ʻi ʻolunga, ʻoku ʻulungaanga hangē ha ParolifoungaParoliFakalakalaka fakapapau: fakaua hili ha ikuna, kamata foʻou hili ha mole pe hili ha ikuna ʻe tolu hokohoko. ʻOku toe ui: Martingale fakafoki.Lau kotoa → mālie. ʻOku tānaki ʻe he kau vaʻinga ʻe niʻihi ha iuniti ʻe ua hili ha mole pea toʻo ha taha hili ha ikuna, ʻa ia ʻoku ne ngaohi ke vave ange ʻa e kaka ʻa e peti, ʻo ofi ange ki he Martingale. ʻOku tatau ʻa e mole ʻamanekinamatematikaMole ʻamanekinaKo e mahuʻinga ʻamanekina liunga ʻaki ʻa e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga naʻe peti ʻaki; ko e ʻavalisi ʻo e paʻanga ʻoku mole ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga pe ha vahaʻa taimi.Lau kotoa → ʻi he iuniti takitaha ʻoku peti ʻi he ngaahi faʻahinga kotoa.
Meʻa faʻifaʻitaki · D'Alembert
Taimi vaʻinga ʻe 2,000 ʻo e ngaahi peti totongi tatau mei ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻo e $1,000.
Peti tefito $10 · fakangatangata ʻo e tēpile $500 · vilo ʻe 100 ʻi he taimi vaʻinga takitaha
Ko e hā hono tuʻo lahi ʻo ha hokohoko mole
ʻOku mole ha peti totongi tatau ʻi ha veʻeteka noa ʻe taha ʻi he vilo ʻe 19 ʻi he 37. Ko e laine takitaha ko e ngalingali ke mole kotoa ha hokohoko vilo, mo e lahi kuo mole ai ʻe ha tokotaha vaʻinga D’Alembert, ʻa ia ʻoku ne tānaki ha peti tefito ʻe taha hili ʻa e mole kotoa pē.
| mole hokohoko | faingamālie | meimei 1 ʻi he | mole ki he taimi ni | peti hoko |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Ko e ngalingali ko e 19/37 kuo liunga ʻaki ia ʻe ia tuʻo taha ki he mole takitaha, lau mei ha vilo pau ʻe taha. ʻOku lahi ʻa e ngaahi vilo ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga lōloa ʻe lava ke kamata ai ha hokohoko pehē, ko ia ʻi ha efiafi ʻoku mahulu ange hono ngalingali ʻi he meʻa ʻoku fakahā ʻe ha laine ʻe taha.
Ngaahi fehuʻi
ʻOku ʻikai ha mato ai, ʻa ia ʻoku ne ngaohi ia ko e fakalakalaka fakaʻikai mālie taha. ʻOku ʻikai siʻi ange hono totongi ʻi he peti tatau; ʻoku siʻi mamafa ange.
Ko e fakangatangata ʻo e tēpiletēpileFakangatangata ʻo e tēpileKo e peti siʻi taha mo e peti lahi taha ʻoku ngofua. Ko e peti lahi taha ʻoku ne taʻofi ʻa e ngaahi fakalakalaka peti fakaua.Lau kotoa → pē pe ko hoʻo paʻanga vaʻingapaʻangaPaʻanga vaʻingaKo e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga kuo vahe ke vaʻinga ʻaki. Ko e puleʻi ʻo e paʻanga vaʻinga ko e fili pe ko e hā hono lahi ʻoku tuku ki he fakatuʻutāmaki ʻi he peti takitaha mo e taimi vaʻinga takitaha.Lau kotoa →. ʻI ha taimi vaʻinga mole lōloa ʻoku kaka maʻu pē ia.
Vaʻinga mo e Matematika
ʻUluaki feinga ke ke fakaleleiʻi ʻe koe. Kuo pelu ʻa e tali takitaha; fakaava ia ʻi hoʻo mateuteu.
ʻOku ke vaʻingaʻaki ʻa e D’Alembert ki he kulokulapetiKulokulaPeti totongi tatau ki he fika kulokula ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: rouge.Lau kotoa → ʻi he vilo ʻe 50, ʻo kamata ʻi ha iunitipaʻangaIunitiKo e peti tefito ʻoku ngāueʻaki ʻe ha sisitemi pe ha tokotaha vaʻinga. ʻOku fakamatalaʻi ʻa e ngaahi fakalakalaka peti ʻaki ʻa e iuniti koeʻuhi ke ngāue ʻi ha tēpile pē.Lau kotoa → ʻe taha, pea ʻoku ʻikai ʻaupito ke ke ikuna ha peti ʻo e iuniti ʻe taha (hili ha ikuna pehē ʻe ʻikai ha feituʻu māʻulalo ange ke ʻalu ki ai ʻa e peti). ʻOku ke ngata ʻaki ʻa e mole ʻe 27 mo e ikuna ʻe 23. ʻOku fiha ha iuniti ʻoku ke maʻu pe mole? Pea mo e mole ʻe 29 mo e ikuna ʻe 21?
Fakahā ʻa e tali
Tali +13 iuniti mo e mole ʻe 27, −15 iuniti mo e 29. Ko e vilo ʻe ua ʻi he nimangofulu ʻoku ʻalu ki he tafaʻaki kehe ʻoku fakamole ai ʻa e iuniti ʻe 28.
Ui ko e D ʻa e ngaahi mole toʻo ʻa e ngaahi ikuna. Ko e ola ko e (N − D²)/2 − D ki he vilo ʻe N. Mo e mole ʻe 27 mo e ikuna ʻe 23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Mo e 29 mo e 21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Ko e ʻuhinga ʻoku moʻoni ai ʻa e lao: ko e peti maʻu pē ko e iuniti ʻe taha fakataha mo e ngaahi mole ʻo aʻu mai ki he taimi ko ia toʻo ʻa e ngaahi ikuna ʻo aʻu mai ki he taimi ko ia. ʻOku faʻu ʻe he mole takitaha ʻoku fakaʻosi ʻe ha ikuna ki mui ha ongo meʻa, mole ʻa e s pea ikuna leva ʻa e s + 1, ʻa ia ko e tupu kakato ko e iuniti ʻe +1, ʻo hangē ko ia ʻoku fakahā ʻe he tēpile ʻi ʻolunga. ʻI he vilo ʻe N, ʻoku faʻu ha ongo meʻa pehē ʻe (N − D)/2, ʻoku mahuʻinga ʻaki ʻa e +(N − D)/2. Ko e mole ʻe D ʻoku toe naʻe tuku ia ʻi he lahi ʻo e peti 1, 2 … D ʻi he hala hake pea naʻe ʻikai ʻaupito fakaʻosi; ʻoku nau fakamole ʻa e 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Fakataha: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Ko e sikuea ko e talanoa kakato ia. ʻOku totongi ʻe ha taimi vaʻinga ʻoku tatau ha vaeua ʻo ha iuniti ʻi he vilo, pea ʻoku fakamole lahi ange ʻe he sitepu takitaha mei he tatau ʻi he sitepu kimuʻa ai.
ʻOku ke vaʻingaʻaki ʻa e D’Alembert fakafoki ki he kulokula ʻi he vilo ʻe 100, ʻo kamata ʻi ha iuniti ʻe taha, pea ʻoku ʻikai ʻaupito mole ha peti ʻo e iuniti ʻe taha. ʻOku ke ngata ʻaki ʻa e ikuna ʻe 52 mo e mole ʻe 48. ʻOku ke tuʻu ʻi fē? Pea mo e ikuna ʻe 60 mo e mole ʻe 40?
Fakahā ʻa e tali
Tali −38 iuniti mo e ikuna ʻe 52, +170 mo e 60. ʻOku kei mole pē ha kiʻi ʻi muʻa siʻi ʻi he ngaahi ikuna; ko ha ʻi muʻa lahi pē ʻoku totongi.
Ui ko e D ʻa e ngaahi ikuna toʻo ʻa e ngaahi mole. Ko e ola ko e (D² − N)/2 + D ki he vilo ʻe N.
Ikuna ʻe 52 mo e mole ʻe 48: D = 4, ko ia ko e (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Ikuna ʻe 60 mo e mole ʻe 40: D = 20, ko ia ko e (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Ko e ʻuhinga: ʻoku faʻu ʻe he ikuna takitaha ʻoku fakaʻosi ʻe ha mole ki mui ha ongo meʻa, ikuna ʻi he s pea mole leva ʻi he s + 1, ʻa ia ko e kakato ko e −1. Ko e ikuna ʻe D ʻoku toe naʻe tuku ia ʻi he lahi ʻo e peti 1, 2 … D ʻi he hala hake pea ʻoku ʻikai ʻaupito fakaʻosi; ʻoku nau ʻomi ʻa e D(D + 1)/2. ʻI he vilo ʻe N, ʻoku faʻu ha ongo meʻa ʻe (N − D)/2, ko ia ko e fakakātoa ko e D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ko e lao ia ʻo e D’Alembert ʻuluaki kae fetongi ʻa e ngaahi fakaʻilonga: ʻi ai, ʻoku ikuna ʻe he tatau ha vaeua ʻo ha iuniti ʻi he vilo pea ʻoku tautea ʻa e taʻetatau; ʻi heni, ʻoku fakamole ʻe he tatau ha vaeua ʻo ha iuniti ʻi he vilo pea ʻoku fakapaleʻi ʻa e taʻetatau.
Meʻa fakaoli
Fakahingoa ki ha tokotaha matematika naʻe hala ʻi he paʻanga siliva.
Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga
- RouletteDoc. Strategy description and examples.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.