LĒPISIVI 06df = 36α = 0.05seed 99

Hehema ʻo e Veʻeteka Lulēti

ʻOku saiʻia ha veʻeteka lulēti hehema ʻi ha ngaahi luo ʻe niʻihi koeʻuhi ko ha maumau fakatuʻasino: ha meʻa vahe kuo mafoa, ha konga vilo ʻoku ʻikai tatau, ha ngaahi luo kuo motuʻa. ʻOku ʻi ai moʻoni ʻa e hehema ʻo e veʻeteka lulēti pea kuo ngāueʻaki ia. Ko e faingataʻa ko e ngaohi maʻu pē ʻe ha veʻeteka faitotonu kakato ha ngaahi “fika vela”, ko ia ko e fehuʻi ʻoku ʻikai ko e pe ʻoku vela ha fika, ka ko e pe ʻoku taʻetatau lahi ange ʻa e sīpinga kotoa ʻi he meʻa ʻoku ngofua ʻe he monūʻia.

1. Sīpinga ʻo ha veʻeteka faitotonu

Ngaahi vilo kuo toʻo mei ha veʻeteka faʻifaʻitaki ʻoku ʻikai ha hehema ia. Liliu ʻa e lahi ʻo e sīpinga pea siofi ʻa e luo vela taha.

ngaahi vilo370

ʻamanekina ʻi he luo takitaha10.0

luo vela taha20 · hū ʻe 16 (4.32%)

vela taha ʻo fakahoa ki he ʻamanekina+60% · 1.9σ

sivi chi-square · p32.8 · 0.622

tuʻutuʻuniʻikai ha fakamoʻoni ʻo ha hehema

2. Meʻa naʻe hoko mo e meʻa ʻamanekina

Ko e paʻa taki taha ko ha luo ʻi he hokohoko ʻo e veʻeteka. Ko e laine motumotu ko e lau ʻamanekina, n/37. Ko e konga fakapoʻuli ko e ±2 mavahe fakasitanate: ʻi ha veʻeteka faitotonu ʻe meimei luo ʻe taha ʻi he uofulu ʻe hū ki tuʻa ai ʻi he monūʻia pē.

0ngaahi luo ʻi he hokohoko ʻo e veʻeteka →26

3. Sivi chi-square

ʻOku tānaki ʻe he sivi ʻa e mamaʻo ʻo e luo kotoa mei he ʻamanekina, kuo sikuea mo fakatatau. ʻI ha veʻeteka faitotonu ʻoku muimui ʻa e kātoa ki ha tufaki chi-square mo e tuʻunga tauʻatāina ʻe 36; ʻoku angamaheni ke ui ha mahuʻinga p ʻi lalo ʻi he 0.05 ko e mahuʻinga fakasitetisitika.

χ² = Σ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ Eᵢ = n/37 df = 36
n = 370 · E = 10.00 · χ² = 32.80 · p = 0.622

Fakatokanga ki he lahi ʻo e sīpingaʻI lalo ʻi he meimei vilo ʻe 1,000 ʻoku meimei ʻikai ha mālohi ʻo e sivi ke ʻiloʻi ha ngaahi hehema moʻoni, pea ʻe hoko ha ola “mahuʻinga” ʻi he p < 0.05 ʻi he monūʻia pē ʻi he 1 ʻo e sīpinga faitotonu ʻe 20 kotoa ʻoku ke vakai ki ai. Ko hono siviʻi ha ngaahi veʻeteka lahi, pe toe siviʻi ʻa e veʻeteka tatau kae ʻoua ke ne lava, ʻoku pau ai ke maʻu ha ngaahi ola hala.

4. Ko e vilo ʻe fiha te ke fiemaʻu

Ngaahi vilo ʻoku fiemaʻu ke ʻiloʻi ha luo ʻe taha ʻoku tō lahi ange ʻi he 1/37, ʻi ha tuʻunga 5% tafaʻaki pē ʻe taha mo e mālohi ʻo e 80%. Ko ha luo ʻoku tō tuʻo 1 ʻi he 35 ʻi he ʻikai ko e 1 ʻi he 37 ʻe hoko ia ko ha tuʻunga lelei mālohi ki ha tokotaha vaʻinga, pea ʻoku fiemaʻu ha ngaahi mano ʻo e vilo kuo fakahiki ke fakapapauʻi ia.

vave moʻonituʻunga lelei kau vaʻingavilo ʻoku fiemaʻuʻi he vilo ʻe 40/h

1 ʻi he 25+44.0%1,10828 h

1 ʻi he 30+20.0%4,392110 h

1 ʻi he 33+9.1%15,747394 h

1 ʻi he 35+2.9%69,4611,737 h

Ke fakapapauʻi ha hehema ʻoku ʻuhinga ia ko hono fakahiki ʻa e ngaahi vilo ʻi he pō kotoa, ko e ngaahi mano ʻo kinautolu.

Founga Ngāue

Sīpinga. Ngaahi toʻo tatau mei he luo ʻe 37 ʻaki ha meʻa ngaohi fika mo e seed (mulberry32, seed 99), ko ia ʻe lava ke toe ngaohi tatau ʻa e peesi.

Sivi. Sivi chi-square ʻa Pearson ki he feʻunga, tuʻunga tauʻatāina ʻe 36, mahuʻinga p mei he fankisoni gamma taʻekakato kuo fakatonutonu.

Mālohi. Fakafuofua normal ki ha sivi ʻo ha vahe ʻe taha, α = 0.05 tafaʻaki pē ʻe taha, mālohi 0.80.

Ngataʻanga. ʻIloʻi fakasitetisitika pē. ʻOku fakamatalaʻi ʻa e ngaahi tupuʻanga fakatuʻasino mo e vakaiʻi ʻo e ngaahi konga (ʻikai ko e luo taki taha) ʻi he Vakaiʻi ʻo e Ngaahi Konga.

Meʻa fakaoli

ʻOku ngaohi ʻe ha veʻeteka faitotonu ha ngaahi fika vela ʻi he pō kotoa. Ke fakamoʻoniʻi ha hehema ʻoku fiemaʻu ha ngaahi mano ʻo e vilo.

Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga

Pearson, K. (1900). On the criterion that a given system of deviations… Philosophical Magazine, 50(302).
Thorp, E. O. (1969). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. Review of the International Statistical Institute, 37(3).
Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer. Vahe 13, Roulette.