Founga Lulēti Martingale
ʻOku fakaua ʻe he founga lulēti Martingale ʻa e peti hili ʻa e mole kotoa pea foki ki he peti tefito hili ha ikuna. ʻOku fakafoki ʻe he ikuna taki taha ʻa e ngaahi mole kotoa kimuʻa fakataha mo ha iuniti tefito ʻe taha. ʻOku fakahā ʻi he peesi ʻi lalo ʻa e meʻa ʻoku fai ʻe ia ki ha paʻanga vaʻinga, mo e ʻuhinga ʻoku ʻikai lava ai ke ne liliu ʻa e mole ʻamanekina.
ʻOku fēfē hono ngāue ʻa e sisitemi lulēti Martingale?
Mole, pea fakaua. Ikuna, pea foki ki he peti tefito. Ko e sisitemi kakato ia. ʻI ha peti tefito ʻo e $10 mo ha fakangatangata ʻo e tēpile ʻo e $500 ʻoku ʻosi ʻa e hokohoko hili ha mole ʻe ono. Ko e kōlomu fakaʻosi ko e ngalingali ia ke aʻu ki he sitepu ko ia ʻi ha peti totongi tatau, ʻa ia ko e ngalingali ʻo e mole taki taha ko e 19/37.
Peti tefito $10, fakangatangata ʻo e tēpile $500. Hili ha mole ʻe ono ko e peti hoko ko e $640, ʻoku māʻolunga ange ʻi he fakangatangata: ʻoku maumau ʻa e fakalakalaka peti pea mole ai ʻa e $630. Ko e ngalingali ʻo ha mole hokohoko ʻe ono ʻi he kulokula ko e (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, ʻo meimei tuʻo taha ʻi he feinga ʻe 55.
ʻAlu ʻi he sisitemi
Ko ha mole ʻoku fakaliunga ua ai ʻa e peti. Ko ha ikuna ʻoku foki ai ki he kamataʻanga.
ʻOku fua ʻa e ngaahi peti mo e ola ʻaki ʻa e iuniti ʻo e peti tefito.
ʻOku fēfē hono fōtunga ʻo ha taimi vaʻinga?
Ngaahi sitepu siʻisiʻi ki ʻolunga, pea toki ha matapā tō. ʻI ha Martingale ʻi he lulēti ʻoku tānaki ʻe he hokohoko fakaua kotoa kuo kakato ha peti tefito ʻe taha, ko ia ʻoku kaka maʻu pē ʻa e laine. Ko e hokohoko ʻoku aʻu ki he fakangatangata ʻo e $500 ʻoku ne toʻo fakafoki ʻa e $630 ʻi he taimi pē ʻe taha: ko e sitepu ʻe 63 ʻo e ngaahi sitepu ko ia.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- fika lotoloto (median) −$1,000
- p75 +$930
- p90 +$1,830
Meʻa faʻifaʻitaki
ʻOku fakalele ʻe he fili taki taha ʻa e taimi vaʻinga ʻe 2,000 ʻo e ngaahi peti totongi tatau mei ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻo e $1,000. ʻOku fakafoʻou leva ʻa e ngaahi ola.
ʻOku ngata ʻa e lahi taha ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga ʻi ha tupu siʻi (40.8%), pea ko ia ia ʻoku manakoa ai. ʻOku ʻi lalo ʻa e ʻavalisi ʻi he noa (−$66.44) koeʻuhi ʻoku lalahi ʻa e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga ʻoku mole: naʻe aʻu ʻa e fakalakalaka peti ki he fakangatangata ʻo e tēpile ʻi he 59.3% ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga. Ko ha tokotaha peti tatau ʻaki ʻa e $10 ʻi he ngaahi vilo tatau ʻoku ʻamanekina ke ne mole ʻo meimei $27.
Ko e hā hono tuʻo lahi ʻo ha hokohoko mole
ʻOku mole ha peti totongi tatau ʻi ha veʻeteka noa ʻe taha ʻi he vilo ʻe 19 ʻi he 37. Ko e laine takitaha ko e ngalingali ke mole kotoa ha hokohoko vilo, mo e lahi kuo mole ai ʻe ha tokotaha vaʻinga Martingale, ʻa ia ʻoku ne fakaliunga ua ʻa e peti hili ʻa e mole kotoa pē.
| mole hokohoko | faingamālie | meimei 1 ʻi he | mole ki he taimi ni | peti hoko |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Ko e ngalingali ko e 19/37 kuo liunga ʻaki ia ʻe ia tuʻo taha ki he mole takitaha, lau mei ha vilo pau ʻe taha. ʻOku lahi ʻa e ngaahi vilo ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga lōloa ʻe lava ke kamata ai ha hokohoko pehē, ko ia ʻi ha efiafi ʻoku mahulu ange hono ngalingali ʻi he meʻa ʻoku fakahā ʻe ha laine ʻe taha.
ʻOku hoko ha hokohoko ʻo e mole ʻe hongofulu mā nima ʻo meimei tuʻo taha ʻi he feinga ʻe 22,000. ʻOku hangē ʻoku malu ia. ʻOku ʻikai, koeʻuhi ko ha ʻuhinga ʻe ua. ʻOku kamata ʻe he vilo kotoa ha feinga foʻou, pea ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e ngaahi teau ʻo e vilo ʻi ha efiafi. Pea ʻoku ʻikai aʻu ha taha ki he hongofulu mā nima: mei ha peti tefito ʻo e $10 ʻoku taʻofi ʻe he fakangatangata ʻo e $500 ʻa e fakaua hili ha mole ʻe ono, ʻa ia ʻoku hoko ʻo meimei tuʻo taha ʻi he feinga ʻe 55.
Ko e hā ʻoku ʻikai liliu ai ʻe ia ʻa e faingamālie?
ʻOku tānaki ʻa e mahuʻinga ʻamanekina. Kapau ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e ʻamanekina ʻo e −2.70% ʻo hono lahi ʻi he peti taki taha, ko ia ko ha hokohoko pē ʻo e ngaahi peti, neongo pe ʻoku fili fēfē ʻa hono lahi, ʻoku ʻi ai hono ʻamanekina ʻo e −2.70% ʻo e kātoa naʻe peti. ʻE lava ke fakatefito ʻa e fili ʻo e lahi ʻo e peti ʻi he ngaahi ola kuo hili; ʻe ʻikai lava ke fakatefito ia ʻi he ola hoko.
ʻoku fili ʻa e bᵢ kimuʻa ʻi he vilo i; Xᵢ = ±1 ʻoku tauʻatāina mei he bᵢ
Ngaahi fakakaukau hala angamaheni
Meʻa fakaoli
Ngaahi ikuna siʻisiʻi lahi, mo ha mole lahi tātātaha ʻe taha. Pea ko koe tonu ʻoku ke totongi ʻa e moʻua.
