Lōloa mo e Fakamole ʻo ha Taimi Vaʻinga
Ko e fuoloa ʻe tolonga ai ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻi ha lahi ʻo e peti, mo e fakamole ʻo e ngaahi houa. Ko e ngaahi fika ʻoku ʻikai fakakaukauʻi ʻe he lahi taha ʻo e kau vaʻinga ka ʻoku totonu ke fai ʻe he lahi taha.
ʻOku tolonga ʻa e peti tatau ʻi he totongi tatau, ʻi he ʻavalisi, ʻi ha vilo ʻe 37 ki he peti kotoa pē ʻi he paʻanga vaʻinga, neongo ʻoku ngata vave ange ʻa e vaeua ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga kotoa; ko e fakamole ʻamanekina ʻi he houa ko e peti × ngaahi vilo ʻi he houa / 37. Fakataha, ʻoku na tokoni ke ke ʻiloʻi ʻa e totongi ʻo ha efiafi kimuʻa pea kamata.
Ko e fuoloa ʻe tolonga ai ha paʻanga vaʻinga
Mo e paʻanga vaʻingapaʻangaPaʻanga vaʻingaKo e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga kuo vahe ke vaʻinga ʻaki. Ko e puleʻi ʻo e paʻanga vaʻinga ko e fili pe ko e hā hono lahi ʻoku tuku ki he fakatuʻutāmaki ʻi he peti takitaha mo e taimi vaʻinga takitaha.Lau kotoa → B mo ha peti tatau ʻi he totongi tatau ko e s, ʻoku holo māmālie ʻa e paʻanga vaʻinga ʻaki ʻa e s/37 ʻi he vilo ʻi he ʻavalisi pea ʻoku kalokalo ʻaki ʻa e meimei s ʻi he vilo ki he tafaʻaki ʻe ua. Ko e holo māmālie pē ʻoku ne fokotuʻu ʻa e ʻavalisi: ʻoku tolonga ʻa e paʻanga vaʻinga ʻi ha vilo ʻe 37 × B/s, he ko e fuoloa ia ke mole ai ʻa e B ʻi he s/37 ʻi he vilo. ʻOku fakataʻetatau ʻe he ngaahi kalokalo ʻa e ngaahi lōloa. ʻOku ngata vave ʻa e niʻihi ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga ʻi ha lele kovi, ʻoku tolonga fuoloa ange ha niʻihi siʻi, pea ko e fika lotoloto (median), ʻa ia ko e lōloa ʻoku ʻikai aʻu ki ai ʻa e vaeua ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga kotoa, ʻoku ʻi lalo ia ʻi he ʻavalisi. ʻOku tolonga ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻo e $500 ʻi he $10 (B/s = 50) ʻi ha vilo ʻe 1,850 ʻi he ʻavalisi pea ʻe 1,364 ʻi he fika lotoloto, ko e meimei houa ʻe 27 ʻi ha tēpile hangatonu. ʻI he $50 (B/s = 10), ko e fika lotoloto ko e vilo ʻe 136, ʻoku siʻi hifo ʻi he houa ʻe tolu.
Ko e fakamole ʻo e ngaahi houa
Mole ʻamanekinamatematikaMole ʻamanekinaKo e mahuʻinga ʻamanekina liunga ʻaki ʻa e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga naʻe peti ʻaki; ko e ʻavalisi ʻo e paʻanga ʻoku mole ʻi ha taimi vaʻinga pe ha vahaʻa taimi.Lau kotoa → ʻi he houa = peti × ngaahi vilo ʻi he houa / 37. Ko e fika ʻe ua ʻoku ke puleʻi ko e lahi ʻo e peti mo e vave. Ko ha tokotaha peti $10 ʻi he vilo ʻe 50 ʻi he houa ʻoku ne totongi ʻa e $13.51 ʻi he houa ʻi ha tēpile ʻIulope, $6.76 ʻi ha tēpile Falanisē, $27 ʻi ha tēpile vave. Fili pe ʻoku fiha hono mahuʻinga kiate koe ʻo ha houa ʻe taha ʻo e lulēti, pea ʻe hoko mai ai ʻa e lahi ʻo e peti.
Fakatahaʻi kinaua
Ko ha tokotaha vaʻinga ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e $500 ʻoku ne fiemaʻu ha efiafi ʻo e houa ʻe fā ʻi ha tēpile hangatonu ʻo e vilo ʻe 50 (vilo ʻe 200) pea ʻoku ʻikai ke ne fiemaʻu ke ʻosi ʻene paʻanga, ʻoku totonu ke ʻoua ʻe lahi ange ʻene peti ʻi he meimei $25 (B/s = 20, fika lotoloto ʻo e ʻosi ʻa e paʻanga ko e vilo ʻe 394). Ko e fakamole ʻamanekina ʻo e efiafi ko e 200 × $25 / 37 = $135. Kapau ʻoku lahi fau ʻa e $135, ʻoku holo ʻa e peti pea ʻoku malu ange mo maʻamaʻa ange fakataha ʻa e efiafi: ʻi he $10, ko e fakamole ʻamanekina ko e $54 pea ʻoku tātātaha ke ʻosi ʻa e paʻanga kimuʻa ʻi he vilo ʻe 200.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- fika lotoloto (median) −$500
- p75 −$50
- p90 +$350
Ngaahi taimi vaʻinga peti fika ʻe taha
Ki he ngaahi peti fika ʻe tahapetiPeti fika ʻe tahaFika pē ʻe taha, totongi ʻo e 35:1.Lau kotoa →, ʻoku pau ke siʻi ange ʻa e peti ki he lōloa tatau ʻo e taimi vaʻinga: ko e σ ʻi he iunitipaʻangaIunitiKo e peti tefito ʻoku ngāueʻaki ʻe ha sisitemi pe ha tokotaha vaʻinga. ʻOku fakamatalaʻi ʻa e ngaahi fakalakalaka peti ʻaki ʻa e iuniti koeʻuhi ke ngāue ʻi ha tēpile pē.Lau kotoa → ko e 5.84 fakatatau ki he meimei 1 ki he kulokulapetiKulokulaPeti totongi tatau ki he fika kulokula ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: rouge.Lau kotoa →, ko ia ʻoku pau ke ʻufiʻufi ʻe he paʻanga vaʻinga ʻa e ngaahi taimi lōloa ʻoku ʻikai tau ai. Ko ha fika lotoloto ʻo e vilo ʻe 200 ʻoku fiemaʻu ai ha B/s ʻo e meimei 13 ki he kulokula mo e meimei 56 ki ha fika ʻe taha, ʻo meimei liunga fā hono lahi ʻo e ngaahi peti. Ko ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻo e $500 ʻoku tolonga ʻi he vilo ʻe 200 ʻo e ngaahi peti fika ʻe taha ʻi he fika lotoloto ʻoku fiemaʻu ai ha peti ofi ki he $9. Ko e kau vaʻinga ʻoku nau peti ʻa e ngaahi peti fika ʻe taha ʻo e $25 mei he $500 ʻoku nau fakatau ha efiafi nounou mo longoaʻa: ʻoku ngata ia ʻi ha hala ʻe uofulu hokohoko, pea ʻoku hoko ia ʻi he lahi ange ʻi he vaeua ʻo e taimi.
Ko e lisi totongi faitotonu
ʻOku fakamole ʻa e lulēti ʻaki ʻa e peti × ngaahi vilo / 37. Ko e meʻa kotoa pē kehe, ko e sisitemi, ko e fika monūʻia, ko e peti malu, ʻoku nau fakapapauʻi ʻa e fōtunga ʻo e efiafi kae ʻikai ko hono totongi. Ko ha tokotaha vaʻinga ʻoku ne fakakaukauʻi ʻa e totongi ʻuluaki pea fili ha peti ʻoku fiefia ke ne totongi, kuo ne fai ʻa e konga pē ʻe taha ʻo e founga ʻoku ngāue.
Fomula
Ngaahi fehuʻi
ʻIkai ha fomula pau. Ki ha paʻanga vaʻinga siʻi, ʻoku pule ʻa e ngaahi kalokalo pea ʻoku tupu ʻa e fika lotoloto ʻo meimei hangē ko e (B/s)², ʻo hangē ko ha sēniti faitotonu. Ki ha paʻanga vaʻinga lahi, ʻoku pule ʻa e tuʻunga lelei pea ʻoku ofi atu ʻa e fika lotoloto ki he ʻavalisi, 37 × B/s. ʻI he meimei peti ʻe 20, ʻoku hoko ʻo tatau ʻa e lao (B/s)² mo e fika lotoloto pau, vilo ʻe 394; ʻi lalo ai ʻoku nounou ia pea ʻi ʻolunga ai ʻoku lōloa ia.
ʻOku ne fakangatangata ʻa e meʻa kovi taha pea fakanounouʻi ʻa e taimi vaʻinga, ʻa ia ʻoku ne fakasiʻisiʻi ʻa e mole ʻamanekina ʻo fakatatau ki he ngaahi vilo naʻe ʻikai vaʻingaʻi.
ʻOku ne fakavaeuaʻi ʻa e fakamole ʻi he houa ʻi he ngaahi peti totongi tataupetiPeti totongi tatauKulokula/ʻuliʻuli, taʻehoa/hoa, māʻolunga/māʻulalo. Fika ʻe 18, totongi ʻo e 1:1.Lau kotoa → pea liunga ua ʻa e taimi ʻavalisi kae ʻosi ʻa e paʻanga, ki he vilo ʻe 74 × B/s.
Vaʻinga mo e Matematika
ʻUluaki feinga ke ke fakaleleiʻi ʻe koe. Kuo pelu ʻa e tali takitaha; fakaava ia ʻi hoʻo mateuteu.
ʻOku ke peti ʻa e $500 ki he kulokulapetiKulokulaPeti totongi tatau ki he fika kulokula ʻe 18. Faka-Falanisē: rouge.Lau kotoa →, ʻa e $10 ʻi he taimi takitaha, ʻi ha veʻeteka ʻIulope, ʻo ʻikai ha lao ke taʻofi. ʻI he ʻavalisi, ʻoku fiha ha vilo ʻe tolonga ai ʻa e paʻanga vaʻingapaʻangaPaʻanga vaʻingaKo e fakakātoa ʻo e paʻanga kuo vahe ke vaʻinga ʻaki. Ko e puleʻi ʻo e paʻanga vaʻinga ko e fili pe ko e hā hono lahi ʻoku tuku ki he fakatuʻutāmaki ʻi he peti takitaha mo e taimi vaʻinga takitaha.Lau kotoa →?
Fakahā ʻa e tali
Tali Vilo ʻe 1,850: vilo ʻe 37 maʻa e peti takitaha ʻo e peti ʻe 50.
ʻOku fakamole ʻe he vilo takitaha, ʻi he ʻavalisi, ʻa e 1/37 ʻo e peti: $10/37, ʻo ofi ki he seniti ʻe 27. ʻOku ʻi he paʻanga vaʻinga ʻa e peti ʻe 50, pea ko hono mole ʻo e peti ʻe 50 ʻi he 1/37 ʻo ha peti ʻi he vilo takitaha ʻoku fiemaʻu ai ʻa e vilo ʻe 50 × 37 = 1,850.
ʻOku ʻikai liliu ʻe he ngaahi hiki mo e holo ʻa e ʻavalisi ko ʻeni, koeʻuhi ʻe lava pē ke ngata ha taimi vaʻinga ʻi he noa pea ʻoku fakamole ʻe he vilo kotoa pē kimuʻa ai ʻa e seniti tatau ʻe 27 ʻi he ʻavalisi. ʻOku nau liliu ʻa e mafolalahi: ʻoku ngata ʻa e vaeua ʻo e ngaahi taimi vaʻinga kotoa ʻi he vilo 1,364, pea ʻoku hoko atu ʻa e taha nai ʻi he uofulu ʻo laka hake ʻi he 5,000, ʻa ia ʻoku ne hiki hake ʻa e ʻavalisi.
ʻOku ʻomi ʻe Epstein (2013) ʻa e lao fakalūkufua: ʻi he fāitaha mo ha kasino ʻoku ʻikai ʻosi ʻene paʻanga, ʻoku tolonga ha paʻanga vaʻinga ʻo e peti ʻe z ʻo hangē ko e z ʻoku vahe ʻaki ʻa e tuʻunga lelei ʻo e kasino ʻi he vilo takitaha. ʻI ha veʻeteka ʻAmelika, ʻa ia ʻoku mole ai ʻe ha peti totongi tatau ʻa e 1/19 ʻo e peti ʻi he vilo takitaha, ʻoku tolonga ʻa e $500 tatau ʻi he vilo ʻe 950 ʻi he ʻavalisi.
Meʻa fakaoli
Peti × ngaahi vilo / 37. ʻIloʻi ʻa e totongi ʻo e efiafi kimuʻa pea kamata.
Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.