Blaise Pascal: Ko e Talatupuʻa ʻo e Veʻeteka Lulēti
Ko e tangata matematika ʻoku faʻa lau ko ia naʻa ne ngaohi ʻa e veʻeteka, ka naʻa ne feinga ke ngaohi ha meʻa kehe.

Naʻe fai ʻe Pascal (1623–1662) ha ngaahi ʻahiʻahi ki ha ngaahi misini ngaue taʻengata ʻi he 1650 tupu. Ko e veʻeteka vilo meimei taʻe-mafulufulu ʻoku lau ʻoku ʻaʻana ko ha kui ngalingali ia ʻo e konga vilo ʻo e lulēti; ka ko e fakafekauʻaki ko ia ko ha talatukufakaholo pē, ʻoku ʻikai ha lekooti.
Ko e tangata matematika
Naʻe ngaohi ʻe Blaise Pascal ha misini fika ʻi hono taʻu hongofulu mā hiva, naʻa ne fakamoʻoniʻi ha ngaahi ola ʻi he siomētili fakaʻata lolotonga ʻene kei talavou, naʻa ne fai ha ngāue tefito ki he tānaki mo e ʻatā ʻatā, pea ʻi he 1654, ʻi ha ngaahi tohi mo Pierre de Fermat, naʻa ne solova ʻa e “palopalema ʻo e ngaahi poini”: ʻe vahe fēfē ʻi he faitotonu ʻa e paʻanga peti ʻo ha vaʻinga faingamālie naʻe tuʻusi. Ko ʻena tali, ke vahe ʻo fakatatau ki he ngalingalimatematikaNgalingaliKo e faingamālie ʻo ha ola, mei he 0 ki he 1 pe 0% ki he 100%. Fika ʻe taha: 1/37 = 2.70%.Lau kotoa → ʻe ikuna ai ʻa e tokotaha vaʻinga taki taha kapau naʻe hoko atu ʻa e vaʻinga, ko e kamataʻanga ia ʻo e mahuʻinga ʻamanekinamatematikaMahuʻinga ʻamanekinaKo e ola ʻavalisi ʻi he peti takitaha ʻi he taimi lōloa. −1/37 ʻo e peti ki he peti ʻIulope angamaheni kotoa pē.Lau kotoa →. ʻOku tupu mei he ngaahi tohi ko ia ʻa e fika EV kotoa pē ʻi he uepisaiti ni.

Naʻe ʻi ai ha misini lulēti ʻa Blaise Pascal?
ʻI he lotolotonga ʻo e 1650 tupu naʻe ngāue ʻa Pascal ki ha misini ngaue taʻengata, pea ʻoku pehē naʻa ne ngaohi ha veʻeteka naʻe mafamafatatau lelei ʻaupito ʻo vilo fuoloa mo e mafulufulu siʻisiʻi. Ko e talanoa naʻe hoko ʻa e veʻeteka ko ia ko e konga vilomeʻangāueKonga viloKo e konga ʻo e veʻeteka ʻoku vilo pea ʻoku ʻi ai ʻa e ngaahi luo.Lau kotoa → ʻo e lulēti ʻoku toe fakahā ia ʻi he ngaahi tohi hisitōlia lahi, ka ʻoku ʻikai lekooti ia ʻi ha taha ʻo e ngaahi maʻuʻanga tefito. ʻOku ngalingali naʻe ngāueʻaki ʻe he kau pule ʻo e ngaahi kolo vai mafana ʻi he senituli 18 ʻa e hingoa ko ia ke fakatau ʻaki. Ka ko ha meʻa ia ʻe ʻikai tali ʻe he Lēpi ʻi he fakamoʻoni ʻoku ʻi ai.
Ngalingali, ʻi heʻene lea mo ʻetau lea
ʻOku ʻikai lave ʻa e ngaahi tohi ʻo e 1654 ki he lulēti, he naʻe teʻeki ai ke ʻi ai. ʻOku nau fehuʻi: ʻoku fie maʻu ʻe ha kau vaʻinga ʻe toko ua ha poini ʻe tolu ke ikunaʻi ʻa e paʻanga; ʻoku nau taʻofi ʻi he 2–1; ʻe vahe fēfē ʻa e paʻanga? ʻOku ngāueʻaki ʻe he tali ʻa Pascal ʻa e meʻa te tau ui he taimi ni ko e ʻamanekina fakatuʻunga mo ha fakakikihi foki-ki-mui ʻi he ʻakau ʻo e ngaahi hokohoko ʻe lava. Naʻe lau ʻe Huygens ʻa e fetohiʻaki pea ʻi he 1657 naʻa ne pulusi ʻa e ʻuluaki tohi ako ki he ʻamanekina. Ko e lea “expectation” (ʻamanekina) ko ʻene lea ia.
ʻOku solova ʻe Pascal mo Fermat ʻa e palopalema ʻo e ngaahi poini: ko e mahuʻinga ʻamanekina ko e totongi faitotonu ia ʻo ha tuʻunga.
Huygens, De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae: ko e ʻuluaki fakamatala paaki ki he ʻamanekina.
Jakob Bernoulli, Ars Conjectandi: ko e lao ʻo e ngaahi fika lalahi.
Fakamatalaʻi ʻa e lulēti ʻi Palesi. Ko e totongi kotoa pē ko e 36/n − 1: EV = −1/37 (pe −2/38).
Ko e sivi chi-square ʻa Pearson, fakahā ʻaki ʻa e ngaahi vilo lulēti.
Ko e meʻa kotoa ʻi ʻolunga, ʻi he uepisaiti ni, ʻi ha palausa.
Ko e peti
Ko e fakakikihi ongoongoa taha ʻa Pascal ki he peti ʻoku ʻikai fekauʻaki mo e lulēti ka ki he ʻOtua: ko e “peti” ʻi he Pensées ʻoku ne fakatātaaʻi ʻa e tui ko ha peti ʻoku taʻefakangatangata hono totongi. Ko ha fakakikihi mahuʻinga ʻamanekina ia, pea ko e ʻuluaki taimi ia naʻe ngāueʻaki ai ʻe ha taha ʻa e tefitoʻi fakakaukau ʻo e fili ke poupouʻi ha meʻa. Ko e kau vaʻinga lulēti ʻoku nau ui kia Pascal koeʻuhi ko e veʻeteka ʻoku nau ui ki he Pascal hala; ko ia ʻoku mahuʻinga ko ia naʻa ne fakahā ʻa e founga ke fakamahuʻingaʻi ha peti.
Ko e meʻa fakaoli
Neongo pe naʻe ngaohi ʻe Pascal ʻa e ʻuluaki veʻeteka lulēti pe ʻikai, ko e vaʻinga ko ha fakatātā lelei ia ʻo ʻene ngāue moʻoni: ko ha meʻa mei ha tangata naʻa ne fakamoʻoniʻi ʻoku ʻikai ke ke maʻu ha meʻa taʻe-totongi (ʻoku tō ʻa e ngaue taʻengata; ʻoku tauhi maʻu ʻa e ʻamanekina), ʻoku ngāueʻaki ke fakahā ʻa e meʻa tatau ki ha kau vaʻinga miliona siʻi ʻi he taʻu.
Ngaahi fehuʻi
Naʻa ne kau ʻi he ngaahi kulupu vaʻinga paʻanga ʻi Palesi ʻi he kamataʻanga ʻo e 1650 tupu, pea ko e founga ia naʻe aʻu ai ʻa e palopalema ʻo e ngaahi poini kiate ia ʻo fou ʻi he Chevalier de Méré. ʻOku ʻikai ha lekooti naʻa ne vaʻinga mamafa ki he paʻanga.
Koeʻuhi ko ha talanoa lelei ia pea naʻe saiʻia ai ʻa e kau fakalahi kasino ʻo e senituli 19. Toe talaʻi ia mo ha fakamatala ʻi lalo.
Meʻa fakaoli

Naʻa ne fakamoʻoniʻi ʻoku ʻikai ke ke maʻu ha meʻa taʻe-totongi. Pea langa ai ʻe ha taha ha kasino ʻi ai.
Ngaahi Maʻuʻanga
- Pascal, B. & Fermat, P. Correspondence on the problem of points.
- Huygens, C. De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae.
- Kavanagh, T. M. Dice, Cards, Wheels: A Different History of French Culture.